Rob Neyer wrote about the advantages the Texas Rangers have over the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. He picked the Rangers in six games. He highlights the one area where the Giants seem to have an advantage over the Rangers, starting pitching, and disputes the big discrepancy. He says that the Rangers are at least equal to the Giants.
"The Rangers can certainly match the Giants' starters. Cliff Lee is just as good as Tim Lincecum and C.J. Wilson is just as good as Matt Cain, and Colby Lewis is just as good as Jonathan Sanchez.
Actually, Lewis is better than Sanchez."
Lee and Lincecum are true aces. The numbers support Lee this season, but both pitchers are capable of throwing a dominating game. In game five of the ALDS, Lee pitched a complete game, giving up one run, striking out 11, issuing zero walks and giving up no home runs. In game one of the NLDS, Lincecum pitched a complete game shut out, striking out 14 and walking one batter. We know what these former Cy Young winners are capable of doing on any given game.
It's the other pitchers I am interested in comparing.
C.J. Wilson: 129 ERA+, 4.1 bb/9, 7.5 so/9, 1.83 so/bb, 0.4 hr/9, 4.6 bWAR, 204.0 innings pitched
Colby Lewis: 116 ERA+, 2.9 bb/9, 8.8 so/9, 3.02 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.6 bWAR, 201.0 innings pitched
Matt Cain: 130 ERA+, 2.5 bb/9, 7.1 so/9, 2.90 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.9 bWAR, 223.1 innings pitched
Jonathan Sanchez: 133 ERA+, 4.5 bb/9, 9.5 so/9, 2.14 so/bb, 1.0 hr/9, 3.4 bWAR, 193.1 innings pitched
After looking at the numbers, they are all pretty similar so he was correct in his comparisons. It is also important to note that ERA+ is league adjusted and not adjusted for all of major league baseball. He was absolutely correct in saying that Lewis is better than Sanchez. Sanchez, while good, is not legit number two pitcher good. Lewis has much better control as indicated by fewer walks per nine innings. The difference in strikeouts per nine innings can be adjusted to the league differential. For instance, Lewis doesn't have the luxury of facing a pitcher a couple times through. It's pretty crazy considering Lewis wasn't pitching in the states last year.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
The World Series Post
Before the playoffs started, I picked the Braves over the Rangers in the World Series. This was based on zero analysis. I wrote down the names of each playoff team and picked the teams based on match-ups. The point of that exercise was to show that World Series winners, more often than not, are random.
Ideally, some sort of Rays, Yankees and Phillies World Series combination was where the money was at, but in small game samplings, heroes can come from anywhere. That's where someone like Cody Ross can go from average major leaguer with some pop to NLCS MVP.
The Giants have great starting pitching in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. The Rangers have super duper ace Cliff Lee, the severely underrated Colby Lewis and probable AL MVP and ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton.
You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching.
My World Series prediction won't come from analysis or picking teams out of a hat but rather feeling after watching these games in which managers affect outcomes more so than not. Analysis is useful in predicting a full season and forecasting next season. It is still useful in predicting series winners, but it's such a small sampling that both teams have an equal shot of winning it all.
I like the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I have a feeling Rangers manager Ron Washington will use Darren Oliver a little too much.
Ideally, some sort of Rays, Yankees and Phillies World Series combination was where the money was at, but in small game samplings, heroes can come from anywhere. That's where someone like Cody Ross can go from average major leaguer with some pop to NLCS MVP.
The Giants have great starting pitching in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. The Rangers have super duper ace Cliff Lee, the severely underrated Colby Lewis and probable AL MVP and ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton.
You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching.
My World Series prediction won't come from analysis or picking teams out of a hat but rather feeling after watching these games in which managers affect outcomes more so than not. Analysis is useful in predicting a full season and forecasting next season. It is still useful in predicting series winners, but it's such a small sampling that both teams have an equal shot of winning it all.
I like the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I have a feeling Rangers manager Ron Washington will use Darren Oliver a little too much.
Tom Glavine IS a Hall of Famer
Earlier I questioned if Tom Glavine deserves to make it into the hall of fame.
Based upon his win total alone, he WILL make it into the hall of fame. There is no question about that. But as we know, wins are a meaningless number when determining if a pitcher is good or not.
In the end of my first post, I said that it is certainly debatable while remaining slightly in the undeserving side of the fence even after baseball writer Dave Cameron responded to my tweet question, "an easy yes."
I decided to tweet this question to another one of my favorite baseball writer's Jonah Keri after he was discussing Andy Pettitte:
"I can understand the reasons to not vote Pettitte. But what about Glavine? Not great so/bb rate, less FG WAR than K. Brown."
Keri replied:
"Sean Smith has Glavine with slightly higher WAR. I'd vote both Glavine and Brown in anyway."
Me:
"I just checked out B-R's WAR, and Glavine is ahead of Brown (and Pettitte). I guess the so/bb rate left me underwhelmed."
Keri:
"Lots of great old-time pitchers had crappy K/BB rates too. Think of Glavine as a throwback. Pitched to his strengths."
There are two WARs: baseball reference and fangraphs. Both are great metrics. Glavine ranks 29th in bWAR. He is ahead of Juan Marichal, Bob Feller and Jim Palmer.
As for that underwhelming 1.74 so/bb rate, Keri was right. Some of the great pitchers of the past had poor so/bb rate. Palmer posted a 1.60 so/bb rate for his career, and Feller ended his career with a 1.46 so/bb rate. In addition, Glavine threw 4413.1 innings in his career and had 14 seasons pitching 200 or more innings. Glavine's hall of fame worth is in his innings pitched, longevity and pitching effectively in all of those innings (career 118 ERA+ and 3.95 FIP).
Tom Glavine--a throw back pitcher--and a hall of famer.
Based upon his win total alone, he WILL make it into the hall of fame. There is no question about that. But as we know, wins are a meaningless number when determining if a pitcher is good or not.
In the end of my first post, I said that it is certainly debatable while remaining slightly in the undeserving side of the fence even after baseball writer Dave Cameron responded to my tweet question, "an easy yes."
I decided to tweet this question to another one of my favorite baseball writer's Jonah Keri after he was discussing Andy Pettitte:
"I can understand the reasons to not vote Pettitte. But what about Glavine? Not great so/bb rate, less FG WAR than K. Brown."
Keri replied:
"Sean Smith has Glavine with slightly higher WAR. I'd vote both Glavine and Brown in anyway."
Me:
"I just checked out B-R's WAR, and Glavine is ahead of Brown (and Pettitte). I guess the so/bb rate left me underwhelmed."
Keri:
"Lots of great old-time pitchers had crappy K/BB rates too. Think of Glavine as a throwback. Pitched to his strengths."
There are two WARs: baseball reference and fangraphs. Both are great metrics. Glavine ranks 29th in bWAR. He is ahead of Juan Marichal, Bob Feller and Jim Palmer.
As for that underwhelming 1.74 so/bb rate, Keri was right. Some of the great pitchers of the past had poor so/bb rate. Palmer posted a 1.60 so/bb rate for his career, and Feller ended his career with a 1.46 so/bb rate. In addition, Glavine threw 4413.1 innings in his career and had 14 seasons pitching 200 or more innings. Glavine's hall of fame worth is in his innings pitched, longevity and pitching effectively in all of those innings (career 118 ERA+ and 3.95 FIP).
Tom Glavine--a throw back pitcher--and a hall of famer.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Tim Lincecum and his gem
One day after Roy Halladay threw a no hitter, San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum throws a better game in a tighter spot. In the Giants 1-0 win over the Atlanta Braves, Lincecum was one bad pitch away of losing the lead.
I couldn't hear the TBS announcers. I can imagine that they discussed pitch counts and "the next game." Am I wrong? Well, as we know from former Chicago Cubs manager Lou Pinella pulling game one starter Carlos Zambrano early to save him for the non existent game four? Lincecum gave the Giants the best chance to win this close game. Given that the Giants employ three other studs in Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner (meaning Lincecum won't be needed until the possible non existent game five), the decision was easy. In the end, he struck out 14, walked one.
I couldn't hear the TBS announcers. I can imagine that they discussed pitch counts and "the next game." Am I wrong? Well, as we know from former Chicago Cubs manager Lou Pinella pulling game one starter Carlos Zambrano early to save him for the non existent game four? Lincecum gave the Giants the best chance to win this close game. Given that the Giants employ three other studs in Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner (meaning Lincecum won't be needed until the possible non existent game five), the decision was easy. In the end, he struck out 14, walked one.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
D-back Dan Haren vs. Angel Dan Haren
Was Dan Haren better as an Angel or as a Diamondback this year?
I raised this question after reading the comments from a Rob Neyer story about Roy Halladay's gem.
ressehilsborne said:
"I'm so tired of hearing about how pitching to the NL is so much easier. It's total ####, first of all your pitching to major league hitters in either sense it's not going to be easy in either league. But time and time again i hear the same story.
So you think the DH adds a lot more depth and strength to the AL? Then do me a favor and explain to me what went wrong with Dan Haren this year? Why is it he was able to dominate as an Angel and do awful as a Diamondback. Better yet, lets look at the entire career of Barry Zito. Dominated the AL, yet he cant even put up a winning season as a Giant.
Put the AL, NL #### to rest already and find some new material. Halladay pitching the way he did tonight would have cut any team in half, including his own."
I won't dabble in the AL vs. NL debate, but it was interesting to see how Haren fared as an Angel as opposed to his time this year with the Diamondbacks. If you recall, Haren had a "rough" going as a Diamondback. I put rough in quotes because his traditional numbers were pedestrian, but his rate stats were exceptional.
In 141 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Haren had a 7-8 record and a 4.60 ERA. In 94 innings with the Los Angeles, California Angels of Anaheim, Haren had a 5-4 record and a 2.87 ERA. That being said, Haren in two of three categories had better rate stats. He posted 1.9 bb/9 and a 9.0 so/9 with the Diamondbacks, and 2.4 bb/9 and 7.4 so/9 with the Angels. The difference is that he gave up 1.5 hr/9 with the Diamondbacks as opposed to 0.8 hr/9 with the Angels. If we take a deeper look, we will see that he had a 3.88 FIP with the Diamondbacks and a 3.45 FIP with the Angels. His WAR with the Diamondbacks was 2.5 and his WAR with the Angels was 2.0. Now WAR is a counting stat, but it is safe to say that Haren was only a little bit better as an Angel than as a Diamondback this season. This is due to the fact that he had a higher home run rate with the Diamondbacks. The one thing we need to keep in mind in this analysis is the 47 inning difference. There's your answer, ressehilsborne.
I raised this question after reading the comments from a Rob Neyer story about Roy Halladay's gem.
ressehilsborne said:
"I'm so tired of hearing about how pitching to the NL is so much easier. It's total ####, first of all your pitching to major league hitters in either sense it's not going to be easy in either league. But time and time again i hear the same story.
So you think the DH adds a lot more depth and strength to the AL? Then do me a favor and explain to me what went wrong with Dan Haren this year? Why is it he was able to dominate as an Angel and do awful as a Diamondback. Better yet, lets look at the entire career of Barry Zito. Dominated the AL, yet he cant even put up a winning season as a Giant.
Put the AL, NL #### to rest already and find some new material. Halladay pitching the way he did tonight would have cut any team in half, including his own."
I won't dabble in the AL vs. NL debate, but it was interesting to see how Haren fared as an Angel as opposed to his time this year with the Diamondbacks. If you recall, Haren had a "rough" going as a Diamondback. I put rough in quotes because his traditional numbers were pedestrian, but his rate stats were exceptional.
In 141 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Haren had a 7-8 record and a 4.60 ERA. In 94 innings with the Los Angeles, California Angels of Anaheim, Haren had a 5-4 record and a 2.87 ERA. That being said, Haren in two of three categories had better rate stats. He posted 1.9 bb/9 and a 9.0 so/9 with the Diamondbacks, and 2.4 bb/9 and 7.4 so/9 with the Angels. The difference is that he gave up 1.5 hr/9 with the Diamondbacks as opposed to 0.8 hr/9 with the Angels. If we take a deeper look, we will see that he had a 3.88 FIP with the Diamondbacks and a 3.45 FIP with the Angels. His WAR with the Diamondbacks was 2.5 and his WAR with the Angels was 2.0. Now WAR is a counting stat, but it is safe to say that Haren was only a little bit better as an Angel than as a Diamondback this season. This is due to the fact that he had a higher home run rate with the Diamondbacks. The one thing we need to keep in mind in this analysis is the 47 inning difference. There's your answer, ressehilsborne.
Welcome to Doctober
Roy Halladay pitches a no hitter in his playoff debut. In beating the Cincinnati Reds, Halladay becomes the second pitcher to throw a no hitter in playoff history. This happens to be the second no hitter he has thrown this season--the first being a perfect game.
Great players do great things whether it be in the regular season or the playoffs. The thing about the playoffs is that it magnifies hot streaks or slumps. It is still shocking that Halladay pitched a no hitter, but it is not shocking that he struck out eight, walked one and gave up no home runs. His so/bb ratio for the season is 7.3, and his hr/9 is at .9. He threw nine complete games and four shut outs.
Halladay's gem was just as good as his last start of the season in which the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Washington Nationals 8-0. In that game, he threw a complete game shut out, giving up two hits, striking out six, walking none and of course giving up no home runs. The only difference is two balls fell for hits. In his brilliant playoff debut, he pitched ridiculously well and got a little lucky that not one ball dropped in for a hit. Striking out batters, not giving up free passes and limiting the long ball...well...that's what makes him amazing.
Great players do great things whether it be in the regular season or the playoffs. The thing about the playoffs is that it magnifies hot streaks or slumps. It is still shocking that Halladay pitched a no hitter, but it is not shocking that he struck out eight, walked one and gave up no home runs. His so/bb ratio for the season is 7.3, and his hr/9 is at .9. He threw nine complete games and four shut outs.
Halladay's gem was just as good as his last start of the season in which the Philadelphia Phillies beat the Washington Nationals 8-0. In that game, he threw a complete game shut out, giving up two hits, striking out six, walking none and of course giving up no home runs. The only difference is two balls fell for hits. In his brilliant playoff debut, he pitched ridiculously well and got a little lucky that not one ball dropped in for a hit. Striking out batters, not giving up free passes and limiting the long ball...well...that's what makes him amazing.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Baseball Playoff Predictions
Since the baseball playoffs are so random, I decided to draw names from a hat to make my predictions. If I were to do some real analysis, I'd say Rays over Phillies and write 1,000 words. But even with analysis, anything can happen. Yeah yeah. Cliche. But it rings true with baseball. That's how we end up with the St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series with David Eckstein as the World Series MVP and Jeff Suppan as the NLCS MVP a few years ago.
Rangers vs. Rays
Rangers
Yankees vs. Twins
Yankees
Phillies vs. Reds
Phillies
Braves vs. Giants
Braves
Yankees vs. Rangers
Rangers
Braves vs. Phillies
Braves
Rangers vs. Braves
Braves
Your 2010 World Series champion, Atlanta Braves. Bobby Cox retires a winner. I picked the Yankees to beat the Braves early in the season. Random drawing picks the Braves over the Rangers. My logic picks the Rays over Phillies. So you know it's going to be Twins over the Reds.
Rangers vs. Rays
Rangers
Yankees vs. Twins
Yankees
Phillies vs. Reds
Phillies
Braves vs. Giants
Braves
Yankees vs. Rangers
Rangers
Braves vs. Phillies
Braves
Rangers vs. Braves
Braves
Your 2010 World Series champion, Atlanta Braves. Bobby Cox retires a winner. I picked the Yankees to beat the Braves early in the season. Random drawing picks the Braves over the Rangers. My logic picks the Rays over Phillies. So you know it's going to be Twins over the Reds.
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