The Philadelphia Phillies signed Cliff Lee to a reported five year $120 million contract with a potential sixth season. Lee is an awesome pitcher and is comparable to Phillies ace Roy Halladay.
Amaro took over the general manager position with the Phillies after the 2008 World Series. Since then, he has made the following moves:
-He signed Raul Ibanez to a three year $30 million contract
-He signed Jamie Moyer to a two year $13 million contract
-He traded for and then signed Joe Blanton to a three year $24 million contract
-He signed Ryan Howard to a five year $125 million contract extension years before free agency
-He traded for Cliff Lee in 2009, who was amazing in the post season and then traded him after the season
-He traded for and signed Roy Halladay to a guaranteed three year $60 million contract
-He signed Placido Polanco to a three year contract
-He traded for Roy Oswalt
-And he signed Cliff Lee again
The contracts, except Halladay but including Lee, are ridiculous. He gave too many years and too many dollars for players who were a bit long in the tooth. I don't get how he can just sign players to these ridiculous contracts that will take them into their late 30s (or in Moyer's case late 40s), but for the very short term, the Phillies have one amazing team that are deserving World Series contenders in 2011 and 2012 for sure.
Showing posts with label Cliff Lee. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cliff Lee. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
San Francisco Giants win the world series
Tim Lincecum pitches eight innings and strikes out ten, and Edgar Renteria hits a key three run home run off Cliff Lee in the San Francisco Giants world series victory over the Texas Rangers.
Going into the World Series, I wrote that the Giants would beat the Rangers in the World Series. Just a quick look at ESPN writers' picks, and you will see that 9 of the 10 writers thought the Rangers would win. In a rough analysis, the Rangers have better hitters and equal pitching. It makes sense that the Rangers would win. The Giants have home field advantage (not a big thing but something) and a much better head coach. Bruce Bochy is not in the elite two of managers (Joe Maddon and Terry Francona), but he is in that group of 12 or so average managers--meaning he is in the top 14. Ron Washington is in the pretty bad manager group. This is an edge because until this game, Washington had not used his best relief pitcher, Neftali Feliz, in a non-save situation. He also put Vladimir Guererro in the outfield, used Darren Oliver too much and kept Derek Holland in a game in which he couldn't throw a strike and walked three batters--opening up a huge inning.
The Giants staff was awesome, but the Rangers staff, save Lee, was underrated and equally as awesome. It was clear to me that the Rangers would win the game started by Colby Lewis and the Giants would win the game started by Madison Bumgarner. The Matt Cain and C.J. Wilson match-up favored Cain, but not by much. The Lincecum and Cliff Lee match-up favored Lee but realizing that Lincecum can out-Lee Lee if you will. I figured the Giants would win in six if Lincecum was epic in one of the two games against Lee--and he was in game five. In game one, Lincecum was average and Lee did not pitch well. It didn't help that the relief pitchers in that game were equally brutal. I thought that if it went to a game seven, the Rangers would have the edge as far as fielded players, but Bochy would put in Lincecum, Bumgarner, whoever if Sanchez showed any signs of not being effective. And when it comes to a close game, it's hard to trust Washington's instincts.
The Giants won the World Series because of their pitching and Bruce Bochy managing pretty brilliantly. Brilliance is a bit of hyperbole, but it's hard to question most of his decisions. He deserves the compliments even if it doesn't extend to next year.
I've questioned Brian Sabean's game plan. Believe me, he is not a great general manager. Keep in mind that Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito and Mark DeRosa are under contract during this World Series, and Zito and DeRosa are not on the postseason roster. Rowand is a bench player.
I didn't like the Aubrey Huff or Edgar Renteria signings, but they have played a huge role in the Giants quest for a World Series title. They along with Buster Posey, Juan Uribe, Cody Ross, Freddy Sanchez, Pat Burrell, the Giants pitching and Bruce Bochy won the World Series.
Going into the World Series, I wrote that the Giants would beat the Rangers in the World Series. Just a quick look at ESPN writers' picks, and you will see that 9 of the 10 writers thought the Rangers would win. In a rough analysis, the Rangers have better hitters and equal pitching. It makes sense that the Rangers would win. The Giants have home field advantage (not a big thing but something) and a much better head coach. Bruce Bochy is not in the elite two of managers (Joe Maddon and Terry Francona), but he is in that group of 12 or so average managers--meaning he is in the top 14. Ron Washington is in the pretty bad manager group. This is an edge because until this game, Washington had not used his best relief pitcher, Neftali Feliz, in a non-save situation. He also put Vladimir Guererro in the outfield, used Darren Oliver too much and kept Derek Holland in a game in which he couldn't throw a strike and walked three batters--opening up a huge inning.
The Giants staff was awesome, but the Rangers staff, save Lee, was underrated and equally as awesome. It was clear to me that the Rangers would win the game started by Colby Lewis and the Giants would win the game started by Madison Bumgarner. The Matt Cain and C.J. Wilson match-up favored Cain, but not by much. The Lincecum and Cliff Lee match-up favored Lee but realizing that Lincecum can out-Lee Lee if you will. I figured the Giants would win in six if Lincecum was epic in one of the two games against Lee--and he was in game five. In game one, Lincecum was average and Lee did not pitch well. It didn't help that the relief pitchers in that game were equally brutal. I thought that if it went to a game seven, the Rangers would have the edge as far as fielded players, but Bochy would put in Lincecum, Bumgarner, whoever if Sanchez showed any signs of not being effective. And when it comes to a close game, it's hard to trust Washington's instincts.
The Giants won the World Series because of their pitching and Bruce Bochy managing pretty brilliantly. Brilliance is a bit of hyperbole, but it's hard to question most of his decisions. He deserves the compliments even if it doesn't extend to next year.
I've questioned Brian Sabean's game plan. Believe me, he is not a great general manager. Keep in mind that Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito and Mark DeRosa are under contract during this World Series, and Zito and DeRosa are not on the postseason roster. Rowand is a bench player.
I didn't like the Aubrey Huff or Edgar Renteria signings, but they have played a huge role in the Giants quest for a World Series title. They along with Buster Posey, Juan Uribe, Cody Ross, Freddy Sanchez, Pat Burrell, the Giants pitching and Bruce Bochy won the World Series.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Cliff Lee Loses Game 1 of the World Series
Did we ever think Cliff Lee would be on the mound when the team loses a game?
The hype machine created a story using Lee's success as the tie-in and ranked him eighth all time. I'm not here to kill Lee because he is an amazing pitcher. Just look at that 10.28 so/bb ratio this season.
In my World Series post, I mentioned this:
"You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching."
The variables are the key to this game. In the fifth inning, balls dropped in for hits. Suddenly, the Giants were up 5 to 2 with two runners on and two outs. With a high pitch count and not getting outs, Rangers manager Ron Washington elected to take Lee out and replace him with Darren O'Day. The next batter, Juan Uribe, hit a three run home run to put the Giants up six. Variables: high pitch count for Lee, relief pitching.
In the eighth inning, Vladimir Guerrero was still playing right field. His horrible fielding contributed to a three run inning to put the game out of reach. Variables: defense, coaching.
All of this contributed to the Giants 11-7 win over the Rangers. While Cliff Lee wasn't great, he was only one piece of the Rangers loss. Starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching: that's how the Rangers can lose games with Lee on the mound.
The minor subplot of the game: Giants manager Bruce Bochy used seven pitchers and three in the ninth inning to protect, at the time, a seven-run lead. Fortunately for Bochy, Washington's choice of playing Guerrero in right field for a full game overshadowed his odd bullpen usage.
The hype machine created a story using Lee's success as the tie-in and ranked him eighth all time. I'm not here to kill Lee because he is an amazing pitcher. Just look at that 10.28 so/bb ratio this season.
In my World Series post, I mentioned this:
"You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching."
The variables are the key to this game. In the fifth inning, balls dropped in for hits. Suddenly, the Giants were up 5 to 2 with two runners on and two outs. With a high pitch count and not getting outs, Rangers manager Ron Washington elected to take Lee out and replace him with Darren O'Day. The next batter, Juan Uribe, hit a three run home run to put the Giants up six. Variables: high pitch count for Lee, relief pitching.
In the eighth inning, Vladimir Guerrero was still playing right field. His horrible fielding contributed to a three run inning to put the game out of reach. Variables: defense, coaching.
All of this contributed to the Giants 11-7 win over the Rangers. While Cliff Lee wasn't great, he was only one piece of the Rangers loss. Starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching: that's how the Rangers can lose games with Lee on the mound.
The minor subplot of the game: Giants manager Bruce Bochy used seven pitchers and three in the ninth inning to protect, at the time, a seven-run lead. Fortunately for Bochy, Washington's choice of playing Guerrero in right field for a full game overshadowed his odd bullpen usage.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Colby Lewis is a Legit Number Two Pitcher
Rob Neyer wrote about the advantages the Texas Rangers have over the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. He picked the Rangers in six games. He highlights the one area where the Giants seem to have an advantage over the Rangers, starting pitching, and disputes the big discrepancy. He says that the Rangers are at least equal to the Giants.
"The Rangers can certainly match the Giants' starters. Cliff Lee is just as good as Tim Lincecum and C.J. Wilson is just as good as Matt Cain, and Colby Lewis is just as good as Jonathan Sanchez.
Actually, Lewis is better than Sanchez."
Lee and Lincecum are true aces. The numbers support Lee this season, but both pitchers are capable of throwing a dominating game. In game five of the ALDS, Lee pitched a complete game, giving up one run, striking out 11, issuing zero walks and giving up no home runs. In game one of the NLDS, Lincecum pitched a complete game shut out, striking out 14 and walking one batter. We know what these former Cy Young winners are capable of doing on any given game.
It's the other pitchers I am interested in comparing.
C.J. Wilson: 129 ERA+, 4.1 bb/9, 7.5 so/9, 1.83 so/bb, 0.4 hr/9, 4.6 bWAR, 204.0 innings pitched
Colby Lewis: 116 ERA+, 2.9 bb/9, 8.8 so/9, 3.02 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.6 bWAR, 201.0 innings pitched
Matt Cain: 130 ERA+, 2.5 bb/9, 7.1 so/9, 2.90 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.9 bWAR, 223.1 innings pitched
Jonathan Sanchez: 133 ERA+, 4.5 bb/9, 9.5 so/9, 2.14 so/bb, 1.0 hr/9, 3.4 bWAR, 193.1 innings pitched
After looking at the numbers, they are all pretty similar so he was correct in his comparisons. It is also important to note that ERA+ is league adjusted and not adjusted for all of major league baseball. He was absolutely correct in saying that Lewis is better than Sanchez. Sanchez, while good, is not legit number two pitcher good. Lewis has much better control as indicated by fewer walks per nine innings. The difference in strikeouts per nine innings can be adjusted to the league differential. For instance, Lewis doesn't have the luxury of facing a pitcher a couple times through. It's pretty crazy considering Lewis wasn't pitching in the states last year.
"The Rangers can certainly match the Giants' starters. Cliff Lee is just as good as Tim Lincecum and C.J. Wilson is just as good as Matt Cain, and Colby Lewis is just as good as Jonathan Sanchez.
Actually, Lewis is better than Sanchez."
Lee and Lincecum are true aces. The numbers support Lee this season, but both pitchers are capable of throwing a dominating game. In game five of the ALDS, Lee pitched a complete game, giving up one run, striking out 11, issuing zero walks and giving up no home runs. In game one of the NLDS, Lincecum pitched a complete game shut out, striking out 14 and walking one batter. We know what these former Cy Young winners are capable of doing on any given game.
It's the other pitchers I am interested in comparing.
C.J. Wilson: 129 ERA+, 4.1 bb/9, 7.5 so/9, 1.83 so/bb, 0.4 hr/9, 4.6 bWAR, 204.0 innings pitched
Colby Lewis: 116 ERA+, 2.9 bb/9, 8.8 so/9, 3.02 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.6 bWAR, 201.0 innings pitched
Matt Cain: 130 ERA+, 2.5 bb/9, 7.1 so/9, 2.90 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.9 bWAR, 223.1 innings pitched
Jonathan Sanchez: 133 ERA+, 4.5 bb/9, 9.5 so/9, 2.14 so/bb, 1.0 hr/9, 3.4 bWAR, 193.1 innings pitched
After looking at the numbers, they are all pretty similar so he was correct in his comparisons. It is also important to note that ERA+ is league adjusted and not adjusted for all of major league baseball. He was absolutely correct in saying that Lewis is better than Sanchez. Sanchez, while good, is not legit number two pitcher good. Lewis has much better control as indicated by fewer walks per nine innings. The difference in strikeouts per nine innings can be adjusted to the league differential. For instance, Lewis doesn't have the luxury of facing a pitcher a couple times through. It's pretty crazy considering Lewis wasn't pitching in the states last year.
The World Series Post
Before the playoffs started, I picked the Braves over the Rangers in the World Series. This was based on zero analysis. I wrote down the names of each playoff team and picked the teams based on match-ups. The point of that exercise was to show that World Series winners, more often than not, are random.
Ideally, some sort of Rays, Yankees and Phillies World Series combination was where the money was at, but in small game samplings, heroes can come from anywhere. That's where someone like Cody Ross can go from average major leaguer with some pop to NLCS MVP.
The Giants have great starting pitching in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. The Rangers have super duper ace Cliff Lee, the severely underrated Colby Lewis and probable AL MVP and ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton.
You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching.
My World Series prediction won't come from analysis or picking teams out of a hat but rather feeling after watching these games in which managers affect outcomes more so than not. Analysis is useful in predicting a full season and forecasting next season. It is still useful in predicting series winners, but it's such a small sampling that both teams have an equal shot of winning it all.
I like the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I have a feeling Rangers manager Ron Washington will use Darren Oliver a little too much.
Ideally, some sort of Rays, Yankees and Phillies World Series combination was where the money was at, but in small game samplings, heroes can come from anywhere. That's where someone like Cody Ross can go from average major leaguer with some pop to NLCS MVP.
The Giants have great starting pitching in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. The Rangers have super duper ace Cliff Lee, the severely underrated Colby Lewis and probable AL MVP and ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton.
You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching.
My World Series prediction won't come from analysis or picking teams out of a hat but rather feeling after watching these games in which managers affect outcomes more so than not. Analysis is useful in predicting a full season and forecasting next season. It is still useful in predicting series winners, but it's such a small sampling that both teams have an equal shot of winning it all.
I like the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I have a feeling Rangers manager Ron Washington will use Darren Oliver a little too much.
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