D-back Dan Haren vs. Angel Dan Haren

Was Dan Haren better as an Angel or as a Diamondback this year?

I raised this question after reading the comments from a Rob Neyer story about Roy Halladay's gem.

ressehilsborne said:

"I'm so tired of hearing about how pitching to the NL is so much easier. It's total ####, first of all your pitching to major league hitters in either sense it's not going to be easy in either league. But time and time again i hear the same story.

So you think the DH adds a lot more depth and strength to the AL? Then do me a favor and explain to me what went wrong with Dan Haren this year? Why is it he was able to dominate as an Angel and do awful as a Diamondback. Better yet, lets look at the entire career of Barry Zito. Dominated the AL, yet he cant even put up a winning season as a Giant.

Put the AL, NL #### to rest already and find some new material. Halladay pitching the way he did tonight would have cut any team in half, including his own."

I won't dabble in the AL vs. NL debate, but it was interesting to see how Haren fared as an Angel as opposed to his time this year with the Diamondbacks. If you recall, Haren had a "rough" going as a Diamondback. I put rough in quotes because his traditional numbers were pedestrian, but his rate stats were exceptional.

In 141 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Haren had a 7-8 record and a 4.60 ERA. In 94 innings with the Los Angeles, California Angels of Anaheim, Haren had a 5-4 record and a 2.87 ERA. That being said, Haren in two of three categories had better rate stats. He posted 1.9 bb/9 and a 9.0 so/9 with the Diamondbacks, and 2.4 bb/9 and 7.4 so/9 with the Angels. The difference is that he gave up 1.5 hr/9 with the Diamondbacks as opposed to 0.8 hr/9 with the Angels. If we take a deeper look, we will see that he had a 3.88 FIP with the Diamondbacks and a 3.45 FIP with the Angels. His WAR with the Diamondbacks was 2.5 and his WAR with the Angels was 2.0. Now WAR is a counting stat, but it is safe to say that Haren was only a little bit better as an Angel than as a Diamondback this season. This is due to the fact that he had a higher home run rate with the Diamondbacks. The one thing we need to keep in mind in this analysis is the 47 inning difference. There's your answer, ressehilsborne.

Dan Haren to the Bullpen

With the score tied 4-4 after the Arizona Diamondbacks rallied back in the bottom of the eighth, Bob Howry and Chad Qualls gave up five runs in the top of the ninth as the Diamondbacks fall to the St. Louis Cardinals 9-5.

Howry, Qualls, Aaron Heilman and Juan Gutierrez have been miserable to start the year. All have an ERA above 6.43. As of this point, I do not have a strong opinion on Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch, but I am glad that Lou Piniella is not the coach of the Diamondbacks. If he was, would we be talking about Dan Haren, who like Chicago Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano is off to a slow start, going to the bullpen?

Tim Lincecum Deserves the National League Cy Young award

I wrote about Chris Carpenter's one-hitter in early September a day after I predicted Tim Lincecum as your NL Cy Young award winner. In the end, I concluded that while Carpenter is similar to Lincecum and deserves a closer look, Lincecum had pitched more innings.

Today, Lincecum and Carpenter still have similar rate stats, but Lincecum has 32.2 more innings pitched on the year. Lincecum and Carpenter appear to be the front runners with Adam Wainwright standing just behind, but Dan Haren and Javier Vazquez are right there. Who is the best pitcher in the National League? Let's parse through the numbers.

Chris Carpenter:

192.2 innings, 185 ERA+, 1.007 WHIP, 0.3 hr/9, 1.8 bb/9, 6.7 so/9, 3.79 so/bb

Tim Lincecum

225.1 innings, 173 ERA+, 1.047 WHIP, 0.4 hr/9, 2.7 bb/9, 10.5 so/9, 3.84 so/bb

Adam Wainwright

233 innings, 158 ERA+, 1.210 WHIP, 0.7 hr/9, 2.5 bb/9, 8.2 so/9, 3.21 so/bb

Javier Vazquez

219.1 innings, 145 ERA+, 1.026 WHIP, 0.8 hr/9, 1.8 bb/9, 9.8 so/9, 5.41 so/9

Dan Haren

229.1 innings, 143 ERA+, 1.003 WHIP, 1.1 hr/9, 1.5 bb/9, 8.8 so/9, 5.87 so/9

Finally, here are the VORP rankings:

Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Dan Haren and Javier Vazquez

Looking at the five pitchers before checking out the final stats, that was the order I was thinking. All five pitchers are legitimate candidates and the differences are minute. While VORP is not the end all stat, it is clear that Lincecum and Carpenter are the two best pitchers in the national league. Haren and Vazquez have the best so/bb stats, but they give up the homerun at a much higher rate than Lincecum and Carpenter. Lincecum strikes out more than Haren and Vazquez so less balls are in play and minimizes the damage when he gives up the walks. After parsing through the numbers, my order has changed slightly.

My ranking: Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter, Dan Haren, Javier Vazquez, Adam Wainwright

Haren, Carpenter and Vazquez can rank in any order between second place and fourth place while Lincecum is the best and Wainwright is the fifth best. As said in the opening and back in September, Lincecum has done what Carpenter has done but has done it in more innings. And I am now done.