The World Series Post

Before the playoffs started, I picked the Braves over the Rangers in the World Series. This was based on zero analysis. I wrote down the names of each playoff team and picked the teams based on match-ups. The point of that exercise was to show that World Series winners, more often than not, are random.

Ideally, some sort of Rays, Yankees and Phillies World Series combination was where the money was at, but in small game samplings, heroes can come from anywhere. That's where someone like Cody Ross can go from average major leaguer with some pop to NLCS MVP.

The Giants have great starting pitching in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. The Rangers have super duper ace Cliff Lee, the severely underrated Colby Lewis and probable AL MVP and ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton.

You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching.

My World Series prediction won't come from analysis or picking teams out of a hat but rather feeling after watching these games in which managers affect outcomes more so than not. Analysis is useful in predicting a full season and forecasting next season. It is still useful in predicting series winners, but it's such a small sampling that both teams have an equal shot of winning it all.

I like the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I have a feeling Rangers manager Ron Washington will use Darren Oliver a little too much.

Josh Hamilton: Great Story But Not The AL MVP

I was watching the FOX pregame show for baseball this morning. They were talking MVP for the AL. And Mark Grace, seemingly unprepared, asked Kevin Kennedy for help. Kennedy shouted, "Josh Hamilton," and Grace agreed.

Now, I get that the Josh Hamilton story is a really good story, but check the stats. VORP is probably the best measurement for "value."

Josh Hamilton is having a GREAT year. Make no mistake about it. Grady Sizemore is the most valuable player in the AL, but I'm one of those guys that likes the MVP to go to a player on a contending team. So since the Yankees are in contention, Alex Rodriguez is your AL MVP. The strange thing is despite Hamilton's year, he's the third best hitter on the team behind Kinsler and Bradley. So he isn't even the most valuable player on his team.

But lets break this down by more traditional stats.

Josh Hamilton:

75 runs. Great. But that is more of a team stat. He is dependent on others for that numbers as well as himself.

27 homeruns. Great.

108 rbis. Great. But that is also a team stat where he is dependent on others as well as himself.

.300 batting average. Very good.

.365 on base percentage. Very good.

.547 slugging percentage. Very good.

140 OPS+. 100 is average so you can see how far above average he is.

Ian Kinsler:

94 runs. Great. But that is because of him getting on base AND players like Bradley and Hamilton driving him in. Kinsler getting on base and scoring runs also influences Hamilton's high rbis. So they are helping each other out.

14 homeruns. Good.

62 rbis. Good, but a team stat.

.313 batting average. Very good.

.374 on base percentage. Very good. Gets on base more than Hamilton.

.498 slugging percentage. Very good.

131 OPS+. He is well above average.

Now you're saying, "Hamilton has a higher OPS+ and slugging percentage so he is better." True. But Hamilton plays a position where there are a lot of very great hitters. Kinsler plays second base where there aren't a lot of great hitters. Hamilton's 9 OPS+ points higher isn't a big enough difference to make up for the position differences. There is more value in having Kinsler than Hamilton.