Madison Bumgarner pitched eight shut out innings to move the San Francisco Giants one game closer to a World Series title. In the 4-0 victory over the Texas Rangers, Bumgarner just needed the two run home run from Aubrey Huff in the third inning.
In 121 major league innings, Bumgarner has a 3.31 so/bb ratio. Today, he struck out six and walked two. He was sharp from start to finish. Brian Wilson finished the game with two strikeouts in the ninth inning.
This game was mostly free of questionable managerial moves. Rangers manager Ron Washington didn't have an opportunity to blow this game. Sure, using Darren Oliver in a two run game was questionable, but the Rangers didn't score a single run.
Going into the World Series, I wrote about how close the starting pitching was between the Giants and the Rangers. Looking at the specific matchups, the Rangers had a clear edge with Colby Lewis over Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez has the stuff to throw a dominating gem, but he also can walk a bunch of batters and get into early trouble. The Rangers also had the advantage with Cliff Lee over Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is an ace and he is capable of out pitching Lee on any given day so that advantage is very small. The Giants have a small edge with Matt Cain over C.J. Wilson, however, it isn't a large enough gap to make a huge difference. All of the games have gone as they should.
Including this game.
Bumgarner has a huge advantage over Tommy Hunter. It's not even close. Hunter doesn't strike out a lot of batters (career 5.1 so/9) and gives up a lot of home runs (career 1.4 hr/9). While he doesn't walk a lot of hitters (career 2.5 bb/9), his control isn't that great to offset the home runs and lack of strike outs.
It would have been fun to see Bumgarner pitch a complete game shut out, it wasn't the worst thing in the world to remove him after eight. That's all they needed from him tonight. And if this reaches a game seven, they will probably need him to replicate his dominance.
Showing posts with label texas rangers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label texas rangers. Show all posts
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Colby Lewis is a Legit Number Two Pitcher
Rob Neyer wrote about the advantages the Texas Rangers have over the San Francisco Giants in the World Series. He picked the Rangers in six games. He highlights the one area where the Giants seem to have an advantage over the Rangers, starting pitching, and disputes the big discrepancy. He says that the Rangers are at least equal to the Giants.
"The Rangers can certainly match the Giants' starters. Cliff Lee is just as good as Tim Lincecum and C.J. Wilson is just as good as Matt Cain, and Colby Lewis is just as good as Jonathan Sanchez.
Actually, Lewis is better than Sanchez."
Lee and Lincecum are true aces. The numbers support Lee this season, but both pitchers are capable of throwing a dominating game. In game five of the ALDS, Lee pitched a complete game, giving up one run, striking out 11, issuing zero walks and giving up no home runs. In game one of the NLDS, Lincecum pitched a complete game shut out, striking out 14 and walking one batter. We know what these former Cy Young winners are capable of doing on any given game.
It's the other pitchers I am interested in comparing.
C.J. Wilson: 129 ERA+, 4.1 bb/9, 7.5 so/9, 1.83 so/bb, 0.4 hr/9, 4.6 bWAR, 204.0 innings pitched
Colby Lewis: 116 ERA+, 2.9 bb/9, 8.8 so/9, 3.02 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.6 bWAR, 201.0 innings pitched
Matt Cain: 130 ERA+, 2.5 bb/9, 7.1 so/9, 2.90 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.9 bWAR, 223.1 innings pitched
Jonathan Sanchez: 133 ERA+, 4.5 bb/9, 9.5 so/9, 2.14 so/bb, 1.0 hr/9, 3.4 bWAR, 193.1 innings pitched
After looking at the numbers, they are all pretty similar so he was correct in his comparisons. It is also important to note that ERA+ is league adjusted and not adjusted for all of major league baseball. He was absolutely correct in saying that Lewis is better than Sanchez. Sanchez, while good, is not legit number two pitcher good. Lewis has much better control as indicated by fewer walks per nine innings. The difference in strikeouts per nine innings can be adjusted to the league differential. For instance, Lewis doesn't have the luxury of facing a pitcher a couple times through. It's pretty crazy considering Lewis wasn't pitching in the states last year.
"The Rangers can certainly match the Giants' starters. Cliff Lee is just as good as Tim Lincecum and C.J. Wilson is just as good as Matt Cain, and Colby Lewis is just as good as Jonathan Sanchez.
Actually, Lewis is better than Sanchez."
Lee and Lincecum are true aces. The numbers support Lee this season, but both pitchers are capable of throwing a dominating game. In game five of the ALDS, Lee pitched a complete game, giving up one run, striking out 11, issuing zero walks and giving up no home runs. In game one of the NLDS, Lincecum pitched a complete game shut out, striking out 14 and walking one batter. We know what these former Cy Young winners are capable of doing on any given game.
It's the other pitchers I am interested in comparing.
C.J. Wilson: 129 ERA+, 4.1 bb/9, 7.5 so/9, 1.83 so/bb, 0.4 hr/9, 4.6 bWAR, 204.0 innings pitched
Colby Lewis: 116 ERA+, 2.9 bb/9, 8.8 so/9, 3.02 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.6 bWAR, 201.0 innings pitched
Matt Cain: 130 ERA+, 2.5 bb/9, 7.1 so/9, 2.90 so/bb, 0.9 hr/9, 3.9 bWAR, 223.1 innings pitched
Jonathan Sanchez: 133 ERA+, 4.5 bb/9, 9.5 so/9, 2.14 so/bb, 1.0 hr/9, 3.4 bWAR, 193.1 innings pitched
After looking at the numbers, they are all pretty similar so he was correct in his comparisons. It is also important to note that ERA+ is league adjusted and not adjusted for all of major league baseball. He was absolutely correct in saying that Lewis is better than Sanchez. Sanchez, while good, is not legit number two pitcher good. Lewis has much better control as indicated by fewer walks per nine innings. The difference in strikeouts per nine innings can be adjusted to the league differential. For instance, Lewis doesn't have the luxury of facing a pitcher a couple times through. It's pretty crazy considering Lewis wasn't pitching in the states last year.
The World Series Post
Before the playoffs started, I picked the Braves over the Rangers in the World Series. This was based on zero analysis. I wrote down the names of each playoff team and picked the teams based on match-ups. The point of that exercise was to show that World Series winners, more often than not, are random.
Ideally, some sort of Rays, Yankees and Phillies World Series combination was where the money was at, but in small game samplings, heroes can come from anywhere. That's where someone like Cody Ross can go from average major leaguer with some pop to NLCS MVP.
The Giants have great starting pitching in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. The Rangers have super duper ace Cliff Lee, the severely underrated Colby Lewis and probable AL MVP and ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton.
You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching.
My World Series prediction won't come from analysis or picking teams out of a hat but rather feeling after watching these games in which managers affect outcomes more so than not. Analysis is useful in predicting a full season and forecasting next season. It is still useful in predicting series winners, but it's such a small sampling that both teams have an equal shot of winning it all.
I like the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I have a feeling Rangers manager Ron Washington will use Darren Oliver a little too much.
Ideally, some sort of Rays, Yankees and Phillies World Series combination was where the money was at, but in small game samplings, heroes can come from anywhere. That's where someone like Cody Ross can go from average major leaguer with some pop to NLCS MVP.
The Giants have great starting pitching in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Jonathan Sanchez. The Rangers have super duper ace Cliff Lee, the severely underrated Colby Lewis and probable AL MVP and ALCS MVP Josh Hamilton.
You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching.
My World Series prediction won't come from analysis or picking teams out of a hat but rather feeling after watching these games in which managers affect outcomes more so than not. Analysis is useful in predicting a full season and forecasting next season. It is still useful in predicting series winners, but it's such a small sampling that both teams have an equal shot of winning it all.
I like the San Francisco Giants to win the World Series. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I have a feeling Rangers manager Ron Washington will use Darren Oliver a little too much.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Baseball Playoff Predictions
Since the baseball playoffs are so random, I decided to draw names from a hat to make my predictions. If I were to do some real analysis, I'd say Rays over Phillies and write 1,000 words. But even with analysis, anything can happen. Yeah yeah. Cliche. But it rings true with baseball. That's how we end up with the St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series with David Eckstein as the World Series MVP and Jeff Suppan as the NLCS MVP a few years ago.
Rangers vs. Rays
Rangers
Yankees vs. Twins
Yankees
Phillies vs. Reds
Phillies
Braves vs. Giants
Braves
Yankees vs. Rangers
Rangers
Braves vs. Phillies
Braves
Rangers vs. Braves
Braves
Your 2010 World Series champion, Atlanta Braves. Bobby Cox retires a winner. I picked the Yankees to beat the Braves early in the season. Random drawing picks the Braves over the Rangers. My logic picks the Rays over Phillies. So you know it's going to be Twins over the Reds.
Rangers vs. Rays
Rangers
Yankees vs. Twins
Yankees
Phillies vs. Reds
Phillies
Braves vs. Giants
Braves
Yankees vs. Rangers
Rangers
Braves vs. Phillies
Braves
Rangers vs. Braves
Braves
Your 2010 World Series champion, Atlanta Braves. Bobby Cox retires a winner. I picked the Yankees to beat the Braves early in the season. Random drawing picks the Braves over the Rangers. My logic picks the Rays over Phillies. So you know it's going to be Twins over the Reds.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Ivan Rodriguez: True Yankee
ESPN ran a story on its Web site several years ago about a True Yankee. I think the concept is ridiculous because it is synonymous with winning and having a big hit. Despite posting two MVP seasons, Alex Rodriguez wasn't even in the discussion of True Yankee until last season when he had another great, albeit in an injury plagued, season, a dominating post season and a World Series ring. Yet a monster 27-game season followed up with a decent enough post season and a World Series ring put Shane Spencer into True Yankee status after his 1998 season.
With that in mind, I thought it would be fun to kind of pick at this notion of True Yankee. I introduce Ivan Rodriguez: True Yankee.
Ivan Rodriguez is a Hall of Fame quality catcher who had a great run with the Texas Rangers from 1991 till 2002. He won an MVP in 1999 and made All-Star appearances from 1992 till 2001. He signed with the Florida Marlins in 2003 and helped them win a World Series over the New York Yankees. He then latched on to the Detroit Tigers in 2004 and put up his last great season posting a .334/.383/.510 line.
Rodriguez briefly played for the New York Yankees in the 2008 season. He played 33 games (101 plate appearances) and posted a .219/.257/.323 slash stats line with 2 home runs and a 51 OPS+. Yes, we're talking only 33 games, but he hadn't posted an OPS+ above 100 since 2004. He was so bad that Jose Molina got a majority of the starts. Coincidentally, Molina in 100 games (297 plate appearances) posted a 51 OPS+. It's always nice when you can get that kind of consistent play among your catchers.
Rodriguez then signed with the Houston Astros and was later traded back to the Texas Rangers in the 2009 season. Combined, he posted a .249/.280/.384 line and a 73 OPS+. He's retired, right? Nope. The Washington Nationals signed him to a two year $6 million contract last off season. If the previous five seasons of average to horrendous play weren't any indicators, the Nationals figured that he could get things figured out as he turns 39 this season and 40 next season. So far, in 31 games and 119 plate appearances, he has posted a respectable .333/.356/.441 line and a 112 OPS+. He should retire now. Ivan Rodriguez: A True National.
With that in mind, I thought it would be fun to kind of pick at this notion of True Yankee. I introduce Ivan Rodriguez: True Yankee.
Ivan Rodriguez is a Hall of Fame quality catcher who had a great run with the Texas Rangers from 1991 till 2002. He won an MVP in 1999 and made All-Star appearances from 1992 till 2001. He signed with the Florida Marlins in 2003 and helped them win a World Series over the New York Yankees. He then latched on to the Detroit Tigers in 2004 and put up his last great season posting a .334/.383/.510 line.
Rodriguez briefly played for the New York Yankees in the 2008 season. He played 33 games (101 plate appearances) and posted a .219/.257/.323 slash stats line with 2 home runs and a 51 OPS+. Yes, we're talking only 33 games, but he hadn't posted an OPS+ above 100 since 2004. He was so bad that Jose Molina got a majority of the starts. Coincidentally, Molina in 100 games (297 plate appearances) posted a 51 OPS+. It's always nice when you can get that kind of consistent play among your catchers.
Rodriguez then signed with the Houston Astros and was later traded back to the Texas Rangers in the 2009 season. Combined, he posted a .249/.280/.384 line and a 73 OPS+. He's retired, right? Nope. The Washington Nationals signed him to a two year $6 million contract last off season. If the previous five seasons of average to horrendous play weren't any indicators, the Nationals figured that he could get things figured out as he turns 39 this season and 40 next season. So far, in 31 games and 119 plate appearances, he has posted a respectable .333/.356/.441 line and a 112 OPS+. He should retire now. Ivan Rodriguez: A True National.
Monday, April 12, 2010
Preseason Predictions One Week Later
I know I'm a good two weeks late to the party, but I did proclaim my preseason predictions and awards before the season started. I swear!
Even though it is one week into the season and my predictions look decent, it is after all, one week into the season. Way to be redundant and state the obvious, right? But it is safe to put these predictions out now because we have a long season ahead and, of course, anything bla bla can happen.
The American League playoff spots: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox. The National League playoff spots: Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks. In the World Series, the Yankees will beat the Braves. My surprise AL team is the Oakland Athletics. In fact, I think they will be battling it out with the Rangers for the AL West crown. My surprise NL team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. They will go down to the wire with the Colorado Rockies. I feel that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Seattle Mariners will be disappointments in the American League as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles and the San Francisco Giants will disappoint in the National League.
Awards:
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Chase Utley
AL ROY: Brian Matusz
NL ROY: Jason Heyward
So far, the A's and Rangers are good. The Giants and Diamondbacks are good while the Dodgers are not good. The Blue Jays have a nice record, but it is not sustainable. The Red Sox and Yankees had to play each other so their records aren't indicative of their talent. The big thing that has caught my eye is how bad the Angels and Mariners have started this season. Again, one week in and things will look very different. It's not that I thought these teams would lose 90 games necessarily. The AL West shapes up to be a very competitive division with all four teams hovering around the 80 win mark. My thing is many experts and/or fans predicted those two teams to be on top because: the Angels always win and the Mariners had a great year and a good offseason.
Last year, the Mariners were 85-77. Look closely though. They scored 640 runs and allowed 692 runs. Yes, they had a nice record and added Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and a bunch of platoon-type players, but those additions aren't being added to an "85 win" team. For a team that is built around solid defense, they have a designated hitter playing left field and a an old guy and a pinch hitter splitting time as designated hitters. The other thing is, Lee is out till May.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were a better team last year, but they lost ace John Lackey, Chone Figgins to rival Mariners and the corpse of Vladimir Guerrero to division rivals. In place, they get a full season of Scott Kazmir, Hideki Matsui, Joel Pinero and Fernando Rodney. Guerrero should be better as a Designated Hitter for the Texas Rangers and Matsui will be good in the Designated Hitter role for the Angels. The Angels should be right there with the Athletics and Rangers at the end of the season, but the Rangers are stacked at pitching and hitting. Figgins and Lackey were huge losses, and that will be the difference. When I say disappointment, I don't mean they will be awful. It will be disappointing that the Angels do not make the playoffs as the young, emerging Rangers overtake the Angels' division reign.
Even though it is one week into the season and my predictions look decent, it is after all, one week into the season. Way to be redundant and state the obvious, right? But it is safe to put these predictions out now because we have a long season ahead and, of course, anything bla bla can happen.
The American League playoff spots: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox. The National League playoff spots: Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks. In the World Series, the Yankees will beat the Braves. My surprise AL team is the Oakland Athletics. In fact, I think they will be battling it out with the Rangers for the AL West crown. My surprise NL team is the Arizona Diamondbacks. They will go down to the wire with the Colorado Rockies. I feel that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Seattle Mariners will be disappointments in the American League as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles and the San Francisco Giants will disappoint in the National League.
Awards:
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
AL MVP: Joe Mauer
NL MVP: Chase Utley
AL ROY: Brian Matusz
NL ROY: Jason Heyward
So far, the A's and Rangers are good. The Giants and Diamondbacks are good while the Dodgers are not good. The Blue Jays have a nice record, but it is not sustainable. The Red Sox and Yankees had to play each other so their records aren't indicative of their talent. The big thing that has caught my eye is how bad the Angels and Mariners have started this season. Again, one week in and things will look very different. It's not that I thought these teams would lose 90 games necessarily. The AL West shapes up to be a very competitive division with all four teams hovering around the 80 win mark. My thing is many experts and/or fans predicted those two teams to be on top because: the Angels always win and the Mariners had a great year and a good offseason.
Last year, the Mariners were 85-77. Look closely though. They scored 640 runs and allowed 692 runs. Yes, they had a nice record and added Cliff Lee, Chone Figgins and a bunch of platoon-type players, but those additions aren't being added to an "85 win" team. For a team that is built around solid defense, they have a designated hitter playing left field and a an old guy and a pinch hitter splitting time as designated hitters. The other thing is, Lee is out till May.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were a better team last year, but they lost ace John Lackey, Chone Figgins to rival Mariners and the corpse of Vladimir Guerrero to division rivals. In place, they get a full season of Scott Kazmir, Hideki Matsui, Joel Pinero and Fernando Rodney. Guerrero should be better as a Designated Hitter for the Texas Rangers and Matsui will be good in the Designated Hitter role for the Angels. The Angels should be right there with the Athletics and Rangers at the end of the season, but the Rangers are stacked at pitching and hitting. Figgins and Lackey were huge losses, and that will be the difference. When I say disappointment, I don't mean they will be awful. It will be disappointing that the Angels do not make the playoffs as the young, emerging Rangers overtake the Angels' division reign.
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