Since the baseball playoffs are so random, I decided to draw names from a hat to make my predictions. If I were to do some real analysis, I'd say Rays over Phillies and write 1,000 words. But even with analysis, anything can happen. Yeah yeah. Cliche. But it rings true with baseball. That's how we end up with the St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series with David Eckstein as the World Series MVP and Jeff Suppan as the NLCS MVP a few years ago.
Rangers vs. Rays
Rangers
Yankees vs. Twins
Yankees
Phillies vs. Reds
Phillies
Braves vs. Giants
Braves
Yankees vs. Rangers
Rangers
Braves vs. Phillies
Braves
Rangers vs. Braves
Braves
Your 2010 World Series champion, Atlanta Braves. Bobby Cox retires a winner. I picked the Yankees to beat the Braves early in the season. Random drawing picks the Braves over the Rangers. My logic picks the Rays over Phillies. So you know it's going to be Twins over the Reds.
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlanta Braves. Show all posts
Monday, October 4, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Is Tom Glavine a future Hall of Famer?
Tom Glavine will be in the Hall of Fame when he is eligible. The 305 wins alone will get him into the Hall of Fame. The question is: will voters look at other (real) statistics?
Wins are a dumb stat. We all know this. The team wins and loses games. One pitcher does not determine the outcome of a game alone unless that pitcher hits a home run and strikes out every batter he faces.
Felix Hernandez gave up one run in a complete game loss today against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Lopez gave up four runs in five innings in a winning effort against the Colorado Rockies yesterday. Did Lopez have the better game? Of course not.
Glavine's career rate stats are not Hall of Fame impressive: .7 hr/9, 3.1 bb/9, 5.3 so/9 and 1.74 so/bb. In his 1991 Cy Young year (his best season), he had the following rate stats: .6 hr/9, 2.5 bb/9, 7.0 so/9 and 2.78 so/bb. He had a 5.7 WAR that season, which is impressive.
I tweeted the question to Fangraphs baseball writer Dave Cameron:
"Do you think Tom Glavine is a hall of famer? After looking at his career rate stats and other advanced metrics, maybe not?"
He replied back to me:
"An easy yes."
Looking beyond his rate stats: His career WAR is 68.6 with a career FIP is 3.95. His FIP ranks 38 out of 40 pitchers with 4,000 innings pitched (or 118 out of 131 pitchers with 3,000 innings pitched. I'm still having a hard time building a Hall of Fame case from these numbers.
But then I took a look at his WAR rankings. This list does not include seasons prior to 1980, but Glavine ranks 9th. He is just above Andy Pettitte but behind Kevin Brown.
I completely respect Cameron's opinion, and he is my favorite baseball writer. I do have to disagree because I think his case is, at least, debatable.
Wins are a dumb stat. We all know this. The team wins and loses games. One pitcher does not determine the outcome of a game alone unless that pitcher hits a home run and strikes out every batter he faces.
Felix Hernandez gave up one run in a complete game loss today against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Lopez gave up four runs in five innings in a winning effort against the Colorado Rockies yesterday. Did Lopez have the better game? Of course not.
Glavine's career rate stats are not Hall of Fame impressive: .7 hr/9, 3.1 bb/9, 5.3 so/9 and 1.74 so/bb. In his 1991 Cy Young year (his best season), he had the following rate stats: .6 hr/9, 2.5 bb/9, 7.0 so/9 and 2.78 so/bb. He had a 5.7 WAR that season, which is impressive.
I tweeted the question to Fangraphs baseball writer Dave Cameron:
"Do you think Tom Glavine is a hall of famer? After looking at his career rate stats and other advanced metrics, maybe not?"
He replied back to me:
"An easy yes."
Looking beyond his rate stats: His career WAR is 68.6 with a career FIP is 3.95. His FIP ranks 38 out of 40 pitchers with 4,000 innings pitched (or 118 out of 131 pitchers with 3,000 innings pitched. I'm still having a hard time building a Hall of Fame case from these numbers.
But then I took a look at his WAR rankings. This list does not include seasons prior to 1980, but Glavine ranks 9th. He is just above Andy Pettitte but behind Kevin Brown.
I completely respect Cameron's opinion, and he is my favorite baseball writer. I do have to disagree because I think his case is, at least, debatable.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Chipper Jones Still Effective
Chipper Jones is off to a disappointing start for the Atlanta Braves this season, but he can still contribute winning baseball.
Going into today's game, he has a .243 batting average, two home runs and a .756 OPS. His OPS+ is 106 so by definition he is an above average hitter. The catch: his on base percentage is .399.
The problem, as outlined in today's box score, is that he is batting third while Jason Heyward is batting second. Batting order is usually designed for the first inning because in the first inning we know who will bat first, second and third. In later innings, it becomes jumbled. Heyward gets on base AND hits for power. His slash stats are .299/.419/.592. I think it's time manager Bobby Cox flips Jones and Heyward in the batting order so Heyward can drive Jones in.
Going into today's game, he has a .243 batting average, two home runs and a .756 OPS. His OPS+ is 106 so by definition he is an above average hitter. The catch: his on base percentage is .399.
The problem, as outlined in today's box score, is that he is batting third while Jason Heyward is batting second. Batting order is usually designed for the first inning because in the first inning we know who will bat first, second and third. In later innings, it becomes jumbled. Heyward gets on base AND hits for power. His slash stats are .299/.419/.592. I think it's time manager Bobby Cox flips Jones and Heyward in the batting order so Heyward can drive Jones in.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
McLouth trade addressed to Pirate season ticket holders via e-mail
Espn.com has managed to get three days worth of stories out of the Nate McLouth trade.
Day one: the McLouth trade was worthy of front page material.
Day two: Pittsburgh Pirate players (who will most likely be dealt by the trading deadline) sounding off on the trade probably deserves a link in the MLB section.
Day three: the e-mail sent by Pirates general manager Neal Huntington to the season ticket holders should be on a Pirate season ticket holder's blogspot.
Of course I clicked on the link to read the ridiculousness so what do I know? On with the story:
From Huntington via the e-mail:
"I understand why some people, at first glance, may believe this move was financially motivated, but I can assure you that this was strictly a baseball decision. In fact, our owner, Bob Nutting, was as surprised as some of our fans when we sought his approval for this trade. I am grateful that he has the faith in me, our baseball operations staff and the processes we have in place to approve a move like this, despite the risk of public backlash on him personally and the organization as a whole."
Offensively McLouth is having a slightly above average season. His .345 on base percentage is a little bit above average but nowhere near elite status and his 114 OPS+ is good for a second baseman but okay-ish for an outfielder. His defense, on the other hand, is horrible. If you look at the plus/minus indicator from the fielding bible McLouth ranks dead last in fielding for center fielders from 2006 to 2008. This year, his UZR is a -.6, but he boasts a career of -26.6.
Now if you are the Atlanta Braves, this is a good-enough deal. Their outfield consists of a guy who doesn't believe in on base percentage because it isn't on the scoreboard, a 37 year old who has a 67 OPS+ and a a rookie who probably got promoted too soon Too lazy to click on links?
Jeff Francoeur: .249//275/.351 and a 65 OPS+
Garret Anderson: .248/.288/.355 and a 67 OPS+
Jordan Schafer: .204/.313/.287 and a 61 OPS+
Amazing that all three outfielders are more than 30% worse than an average outfielder at this point in the season.
Small sample size?
Jeff Francoeur career: .267/.309/.427 and a 90 OPS+
He's just really horrible. His best value is if a team is down one in the bottom of the 9th, he's a good bat off the bench because if he does somehow make contact with the ball, it has a chance to be an extra base hit.
Garret Anderson 2007: .297/.336/.492 and a 114 OPS+
Garret Anderson 2008: .293/.325/.433 and a 97 OPS+
With or without Nate McLouth, the Pirates are not going to win this year or next year, so they need to trade the players who are at the end of their peak (or past their peak) for young, talented players. At 27, Nate McLouth is what he is: a slightly above average hitter with horrible defense. For the Braves, they upgraded their outfield by a million percent. Funny how a 114 OPS+ is a HUGE upgrade. Maybe I need to review Frank Wren's brief tenure with the Braves next...
Day one: the McLouth trade was worthy of front page material.
Day two: Pittsburgh Pirate players (who will most likely be dealt by the trading deadline) sounding off on the trade probably deserves a link in the MLB section.
Day three: the e-mail sent by Pirates general manager Neal Huntington to the season ticket holders should be on a Pirate season ticket holder's blogspot.
Of course I clicked on the link to read the ridiculousness so what do I know? On with the story:
From Huntington via the e-mail:
"I understand why some people, at first glance, may believe this move was financially motivated, but I can assure you that this was strictly a baseball decision. In fact, our owner, Bob Nutting, was as surprised as some of our fans when we sought his approval for this trade. I am grateful that he has the faith in me, our baseball operations staff and the processes we have in place to approve a move like this, despite the risk of public backlash on him personally and the organization as a whole."
Offensively McLouth is having a slightly above average season. His .345 on base percentage is a little bit above average but nowhere near elite status and his 114 OPS+ is good for a second baseman but okay-ish for an outfielder. His defense, on the other hand, is horrible. If you look at the plus/minus indicator from the fielding bible McLouth ranks dead last in fielding for center fielders from 2006 to 2008. This year, his UZR is a -.6, but he boasts a career of -26.6.
Now if you are the Atlanta Braves, this is a good-enough deal. Their outfield consists of a guy who doesn't believe in on base percentage because it isn't on the scoreboard, a 37 year old who has a 67 OPS+ and a a rookie who probably got promoted too soon Too lazy to click on links?
Jeff Francoeur: .249//275/.351 and a 65 OPS+
Garret Anderson: .248/.288/.355 and a 67 OPS+
Jordan Schafer: .204/.313/.287 and a 61 OPS+
Amazing that all three outfielders are more than 30% worse than an average outfielder at this point in the season.
Small sample size?
Jeff Francoeur career: .267/.309/.427 and a 90 OPS+
He's just really horrible. His best value is if a team is down one in the bottom of the 9th, he's a good bat off the bench because if he does somehow make contact with the ball, it has a chance to be an extra base hit.
Garret Anderson 2007: .297/.336/.492 and a 114 OPS+
Garret Anderson 2008: .293/.325/.433 and a 97 OPS+
With or without Nate McLouth, the Pirates are not going to win this year or next year, so they need to trade the players who are at the end of their peak (or past their peak) for young, talented players. At 27, Nate McLouth is what he is: a slightly above average hitter with horrible defense. For the Braves, they upgraded their outfield by a million percent. Funny how a 114 OPS+ is a HUGE upgrade. Maybe I need to review Frank Wren's brief tenure with the Braves next...
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Tom Glavine: release from Atlanta Braves is about the money
The Atlanta Braves released pitcher Tom Glavine, traded for Nate McLouth and promoted prospect Tommy Hanson this week. Glavine thinks his release is about the money and not performance based.
From Glavine:
"I told those guys if it's about you have better options, then tell me you have better options. I have listened the last day and a half about how bad I am, how bad I pitched and how I can't get anybody out in the big leagues. I've heard all that stuff. I don't agree with it."
From Braves general manager Frank Wren:
"Our evaluation was he would not be successful."
From Glavine again:
"Based on my performance? Well, my bad, I just threw 11 scoreless innings. Was I supposed to throw a no-hitter and strike out 15? That's never been my style of pitching."
First, in response to Wren, I agree with your evaluation but how did you not come up with that before you signed him for the 2008 season? What did Glavine do the last couple years with the New York Mets that warranted a contract? Look at the stats.
As a 41 year old with the Mets, Glavine pitched 200.1 innings with a 96 ERA+, a 1.413 WHIP, 1.39 strikeout to walk ratio. If anything, he was an average pitcher at best during his last season with the Mets. The Braves signed him to a contract. A maybe-average pitcher turning 42 years old does not equate to success. In his first year with the Braves, he was horrible in the games he pitched and was injured for most of the year. Now at 43 and coming off an injury, he shouldn't be surprised that he is being released. Sure, he pitched 11 scoreless innings in minor league ball, which is nice, but his past two years are better indicators than 11 scoreless minor league innings. He can convince himself that it isn't performance based, but he is wrong. He can probably pitch for a major league baseball team. Ideally, he could be used in long relief and as a spot starter for a contending team looking for pitching depth. Think Justin Masterson of the Red Sox. But his time with the Braves, like Greg Maddux and John Smoltz, is over. It's time for Braves fans to enjoy Tommy Hanson.
From Glavine:
"I told those guys if it's about you have better options, then tell me you have better options. I have listened the last day and a half about how bad I am, how bad I pitched and how I can't get anybody out in the big leagues. I've heard all that stuff. I don't agree with it."
From Braves general manager Frank Wren:
"Our evaluation was he would not be successful."
From Glavine again:
"Based on my performance? Well, my bad, I just threw 11 scoreless innings. Was I supposed to throw a no-hitter and strike out 15? That's never been my style of pitching."
First, in response to Wren, I agree with your evaluation but how did you not come up with that before you signed him for the 2008 season? What did Glavine do the last couple years with the New York Mets that warranted a contract? Look at the stats.
As a 41 year old with the Mets, Glavine pitched 200.1 innings with a 96 ERA+, a 1.413 WHIP, 1.39 strikeout to walk ratio. If anything, he was an average pitcher at best during his last season with the Mets. The Braves signed him to a contract. A maybe-average pitcher turning 42 years old does not equate to success. In his first year with the Braves, he was horrible in the games he pitched and was injured for most of the year. Now at 43 and coming off an injury, he shouldn't be surprised that he is being released. Sure, he pitched 11 scoreless innings in minor league ball, which is nice, but his past two years are better indicators than 11 scoreless minor league innings. He can convince himself that it isn't performance based, but he is wrong. He can probably pitch for a major league baseball team. Ideally, he could be used in long relief and as a spot starter for a contending team looking for pitching depth. Think Justin Masterson of the Red Sox. But his time with the Braves, like Greg Maddux and John Smoltz, is over. It's time for Braves fans to enjoy Tommy Hanson.
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