Tom Glavine IS a Hall of Famer

Earlier I questioned if Tom Glavine deserves to make it into the hall of fame.

Based upon his win total alone, he WILL make it into the hall of fame. There is no question about that. But as we know, wins are a meaningless number when determining if a pitcher is good or not.

In the end of my first post, I said that it is certainly debatable while remaining slightly in the undeserving side of the fence even after baseball writer Dave Cameron responded to my tweet question, "an easy yes."

I decided to tweet this question to another one of my favorite baseball writer's Jonah Keri after he was discussing Andy Pettitte:

"I can understand the reasons to not vote Pettitte. But what about Glavine? Not great so/bb rate, less FG WAR than K. Brown."

Keri replied:

"Sean Smith has Glavine with slightly higher WAR. I'd vote both Glavine and Brown in anyway."

Me:

"I just checked out B-R's WAR, and Glavine is ahead of Brown (and Pettitte). I guess the so/bb rate left me underwhelmed."

Keri:

"Lots of great old-time pitchers had crappy K/BB rates too. Think of Glavine as a throwback. Pitched to his strengths."

There are two WARs: baseball reference and fangraphs. Both are great metrics. Glavine ranks 29th in bWAR. He is ahead of Juan Marichal, Bob Feller and Jim Palmer.

As for that underwhelming 1.74 so/bb rate, Keri was right. Some of the great pitchers of the past had poor so/bb rate. Palmer posted a 1.60 so/bb rate for his career, and Feller ended his career with a 1.46 so/bb rate. In addition, Glavine threw 4413.1 innings in his career and had 14 seasons pitching 200 or more innings. Glavine's hall of fame worth is in his innings pitched, longevity and pitching effectively in all of those innings (career 118 ERA+ and 3.95 FIP).

Tom Glavine--a throw back pitcher--and a hall of famer.

Is Tom Glavine a future Hall of Famer?

Tom Glavine will be in the Hall of Fame when he is eligible. The 305 wins alone will get him into the Hall of Fame. The question is: will voters look at other (real) statistics?

Wins are a dumb stat. We all know this. The team wins and loses games. One pitcher does not determine the outcome of a game alone unless that pitcher hits a home run and strikes out every batter he faces.

Felix Hernandez gave up one run in a complete game loss today against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Lopez gave up four runs in five innings in a winning effort against the Colorado Rockies yesterday. Did Lopez have the better game? Of course not.

Glavine's career rate stats are not Hall of Fame impressive: .7 hr/9, 3.1 bb/9, 5.3 so/9 and 1.74 so/bb. In his 1991 Cy Young year (his best season), he had the following rate stats: .6 hr/9, 2.5 bb/9, 7.0 so/9 and 2.78 so/bb. He had a 5.7 WAR that season, which is impressive.

I tweeted the question to Fangraphs baseball writer Dave Cameron:

"Do you think Tom Glavine is a hall of famer? After looking at his career rate stats and other advanced metrics, maybe not?"

He replied back to me:

"An easy yes."

Looking beyond his rate stats: His career WAR is 68.6 with a career FIP is 3.95. His FIP ranks 38 out of 40 pitchers with 4,000 innings pitched (or 118 out of 131 pitchers with 3,000 innings pitched. I'm still having a hard time building a Hall of Fame case from these numbers.

But then I took a look at his WAR rankings. This list does not include seasons prior to 1980, but Glavine ranks 9th. He is just above Andy Pettitte but behind Kevin Brown.

I completely respect Cameron's opinion, and he is my favorite baseball writer. I do have to disagree because I think his case is, at least, debatable.

Tom Glavine: release from Atlanta Braves is about the money

The Atlanta Braves released pitcher Tom Glavine, traded for Nate McLouth and promoted prospect Tommy Hanson this week. Glavine thinks his release is about the money and not performance based.

From Glavine:

"I told those guys if it's about you have better options, then tell me you have better options. I have listened the last day and a half about how bad I am, how bad I pitched and how I can't get anybody out in the big leagues. I've heard all that stuff. I don't agree with it."

From Braves general manager Frank Wren:

"Our evaluation was he would not be successful."

From Glavine again:

"Based on my performance? Well, my bad, I just threw 11 scoreless innings. Was I supposed to throw a no-hitter and strike out 15? That's never been my style of pitching."

First, in response to Wren, I agree with your evaluation but how did you not come up with that before you signed him for the 2008 season? What did Glavine do the last couple years with the New York Mets that warranted a contract? Look at the stats.

As a 41 year old with the Mets, Glavine pitched 200.1 innings with a 96 ERA+, a 1.413 WHIP, 1.39 strikeout to walk ratio. If anything, he was an average pitcher at best during his last season with the Mets. The Braves signed him to a contract. A maybe-average pitcher turning 42 years old does not equate to success. In his first year with the Braves, he was horrible in the games he pitched and was injured for most of the year. Now at 43 and coming off an injury, he shouldn't be surprised that he is being released. Sure, he pitched 11 scoreless innings in minor league ball, which is nice, but his past two years are better indicators than 11 scoreless minor league innings. He can convince himself that it isn't performance based, but he is wrong. He can probably pitch for a major league baseball team. Ideally, he could be used in long relief and as a spot starter for a contending team looking for pitching depth. Think Justin Masterson of the Red Sox. But his time with the Braves, like Greg Maddux and John Smoltz, is over. It's time for Braves fans to enjoy Tommy Hanson.