Was Dan Haren better as an Angel or as a Diamondback this year?
I raised this question after reading the comments from a Rob Neyer story about Roy Halladay's gem.
ressehilsborne said:
"I'm so tired of hearing about how pitching to the NL is so much easier. It's total ####, first of all your pitching to major league hitters in either sense it's not going to be easy in either league. But time and time again i hear the same story.
So you think the DH adds a lot more depth and strength to the AL? Then do me a favor and explain to me what went wrong with Dan Haren this year? Why is it he was able to dominate as an Angel and do awful as a Diamondback. Better yet, lets look at the entire career of Barry Zito. Dominated the AL, yet he cant even put up a winning season as a Giant.
Put the AL, NL #### to rest already and find some new material. Halladay pitching the way he did tonight would have cut any team in half, including his own."
I won't dabble in the AL vs. NL debate, but it was interesting to see how Haren fared as an Angel as opposed to his time this year with the Diamondbacks. If you recall, Haren had a "rough" going as a Diamondback. I put rough in quotes because his traditional numbers were pedestrian, but his rate stats were exceptional.
In 141 innings with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Haren had a 7-8 record and a 4.60 ERA. In 94 innings with the Los Angeles, California Angels of Anaheim, Haren had a 5-4 record and a 2.87 ERA. That being said, Haren in two of three categories had better rate stats. He posted 1.9 bb/9 and a 9.0 so/9 with the Diamondbacks, and 2.4 bb/9 and 7.4 so/9 with the Angels. The difference is that he gave up 1.5 hr/9 with the Diamondbacks as opposed to 0.8 hr/9 with the Angels. If we take a deeper look, we will see that he had a 3.88 FIP with the Diamondbacks and a 3.45 FIP with the Angels. His WAR with the Diamondbacks was 2.5 and his WAR with the Angels was 2.0. Now WAR is a counting stat, but it is safe to say that Haren was only a little bit better as an Angel than as a Diamondback this season. This is due to the fact that he had a higher home run rate with the Diamondbacks. The one thing we need to keep in mind in this analysis is the 47 inning difference. There's your answer, ressehilsborne.
Showing posts with label Arizona Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arizona Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
Max Scherzer is a Solid Two
In that big three way trade last off season, the Detroit Tigers came away with the best player--so far. Curtis Granderson made the most headlines, Edwin Jackson pitched an eight walk no hitter, but Max Scherzer is a true top of the rotation pitcher.
After heading to the minors, it didn't look like Scherzer was going to be better than another pitcher involved in the deal, Ian Kennedy. The two pitchers faced off, and I wrote about it. In the game recap, I wrote this:
"Going into this game, it looks like Kennedy has had a better year than Scherzer--especially if you use ERA as the basis of your argument. Scherzer has a 6.14 ERA and Kennedy has a 3.57 ERA."
And after doing some deeper analysis, I concluded with this:
"Both pitchers have very similar rate stats. If Scherzer can lower his home run rate to somewhere closer to his career of 1.1/9, his ERA will drop and if Kennedy can do the same, he will be able to sustain his ERA."
Now the season is over and here is how they ended up.
Kennedy:
191 innings, 111 ERA+, 1.2 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 7.8 so/9, 2.40 so/bb, 2.5 fangraph's war
Scherzer:
195.2 innings, 120 ERA+, .9 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 8.5 so/9, 2.63 so/bb, 3.7 fangraph's war
Both pitchers had nice seasons. Early on, it looked like Scherzer was going to flame out, but it is clear that Scherzer is turning into a stud.
After heading to the minors, it didn't look like Scherzer was going to be better than another pitcher involved in the deal, Ian Kennedy. The two pitchers faced off, and I wrote about it. In the game recap, I wrote this:
"Going into this game, it looks like Kennedy has had a better year than Scherzer--especially if you use ERA as the basis of your argument. Scherzer has a 6.14 ERA and Kennedy has a 3.57 ERA."
And after doing some deeper analysis, I concluded with this:
"Both pitchers have very similar rate stats. If Scherzer can lower his home run rate to somewhere closer to his career of 1.1/9, his ERA will drop and if Kennedy can do the same, he will be able to sustain his ERA."
Now the season is over and here is how they ended up.
Kennedy:
191 innings, 111 ERA+, 1.2 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 7.8 so/9, 2.40 so/bb, 2.5 fangraph's war
Scherzer:
195.2 innings, 120 ERA+, .9 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 8.5 so/9, 2.63 so/bb, 3.7 fangraph's war
Both pitchers had nice seasons. Early on, it looked like Scherzer was going to flame out, but it is clear that Scherzer is turning into a stud.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Max Scherzer Shuts Down the D-Backs
Former Arizona Diamondback Max Scherzer threw a rare gem in a victory over his former team.
Scherzer pitched 7 strong innings striking out eight and only giving up two walks. The Detroit Tigers defeated the Diamondbacks 3-1 on Sunday. Diamondback starting pitcher Ian Kennedy, who like Scherzer, was featured in last off season's three team blockbuster trade, pitched a strong 6 2/3 innings issuing zero walks and striking out five batters. His downfall? He gave up two home runs to Carlos Guillen and Brennan Boesch.
Going into this game, it looks like Kennedy has had a better year than Scherzer--especially if you use ERA as the basis of your argument. Scherzer has a 6.14 ERA and Kennedy has a 3.57 ERA.
Looking at Scherzer's stats, through 66 innings, his bb/9 are consistent with his career averaged at 3.4/9 (not that great), but his hr/9 has sky rocketed to 1.6/9 and his k/9 have dipped slightly at 8.0/9. The dip in strike outs could be due to the fact that he is facing a designated hitter instead of a pitcher or pinch hitter.
Kennedy has been a nice surprise for the Diamondbacks. He was the most intriguing player in the trade because he had GREAT minor league numbers, but has been injured for much of the past two seasons. In 88.1 innings, he has 7.8 k/9, 3.2 bb/9 and 1.5 hr/9.
Both pitchers have very similar rate stats. If Scherzer can lower his home run rate to somewhere closer to his career of 1.1/9, his ERA will drop and if Kennedy can do the same, he will be able to sustain his ERA.
Scherzer pitched 7 strong innings striking out eight and only giving up two walks. The Detroit Tigers defeated the Diamondbacks 3-1 on Sunday. Diamondback starting pitcher Ian Kennedy, who like Scherzer, was featured in last off season's three team blockbuster trade, pitched a strong 6 2/3 innings issuing zero walks and striking out five batters. His downfall? He gave up two home runs to Carlos Guillen and Brennan Boesch.
Going into this game, it looks like Kennedy has had a better year than Scherzer--especially if you use ERA as the basis of your argument. Scherzer has a 6.14 ERA and Kennedy has a 3.57 ERA.
Looking at Scherzer's stats, through 66 innings, his bb/9 are consistent with his career averaged at 3.4/9 (not that great), but his hr/9 has sky rocketed to 1.6/9 and his k/9 have dipped slightly at 8.0/9. The dip in strike outs could be due to the fact that he is facing a designated hitter instead of a pitcher or pinch hitter.
Kennedy has been a nice surprise for the Diamondbacks. He was the most intriguing player in the trade because he had GREAT minor league numbers, but has been injured for much of the past two seasons. In 88.1 innings, he has 7.8 k/9, 3.2 bb/9 and 1.5 hr/9.
Both pitchers have very similar rate stats. If Scherzer can lower his home run rate to somewhere closer to his career of 1.1/9, his ERA will drop and if Kennedy can do the same, he will be able to sustain his ERA.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Dan Haren to the Bullpen
With the score tied 4-4 after the Arizona Diamondbacks rallied back in the bottom of the eighth, Bob Howry and Chad Qualls gave up five runs in the top of the ninth as the Diamondbacks fall to the St. Louis Cardinals 9-5.
Howry, Qualls, Aaron Heilman and Juan Gutierrez have been miserable to start the year. All have an ERA above 6.43. As of this point, I do not have a strong opinion on Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch, but I am glad that Lou Piniella is not the coach of the Diamondbacks. If he was, would we be talking about Dan Haren, who like Chicago Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano is off to a slow start, going to the bullpen?
Howry, Qualls, Aaron Heilman and Juan Gutierrez have been miserable to start the year. All have an ERA above 6.43. As of this point, I do not have a strong opinion on Diamondbacks manager A.J. Hinch, but I am glad that Lou Piniella is not the coach of the Diamondbacks. If he was, would we be talking about Dan Haren, who like Chicago Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano is off to a slow start, going to the bullpen?
Monday, January 18, 2010
The D-Backs Young, Awesome Outfield
The Arizona Diamondbacks agreed to terms with first baseman Adam LaRoche. Ho hum. Until you realize that this move did two things: Conor Jackson will move to left field, and the Diamondbacks released left fielder Eric Byrnes.
LaRoche is an offensive upgrade over Jackson. The last four seasons, LaRoche has put up a 122, 122, 109 and 130 OPS+ with an on base percentage of .355, .341, .345 and .354. LaRoche is 30 years old and his peak years are behind him, but he is by no means an old man. It would not be far fetched to say that he will contribute 20 home runs and a .350 OBP. If the Diamondbacks can find a decent platoon partner to hit the left handed pitchers, they might have a real force at first base. Check out LaRoche's numbers versus right handed pitchers.
Jackson gets on base more than LaRoche, but he has less pop. He will move to left field in place of Byrnes and whoever else they trotted out there last year. Jackson was injured last year, but the three seasons prior, he sported a 109, 109 and 103 OPS+ and got on base at a .376, .368 and .368 clip. He figures to only improve on those numbers as he enters his prime years. Since Byrnes signed that big three year contract after the very nice 2007 season, he did not have an OBP higher than .272 or an OPS+ of 67. Incredible. He was also injured, which was unfortunately his best offensive contribution.
Jackson turns 28 this year, and easily the Diamondbacks have a very nice, young outfield. In addition to Jackson, the disappointing but entering his peak Chris Young will play center field and the breakout MVP candidate Justin Upton will play right field. If Young is going to have a future in this game, this will be the year he shows his talent. He will start the year at 26. So far, he has proven that he can take a walk, but he can't make much contact with the ball. When he was a rookie and made contact with the ball, he was hitting moonshots. His home runs have dropped from 32 to 22 to 15 in each of the last three years. Upton was an emerging super duper star with slash stats of .300/.366/.532. Those numbers are great, but he hasn't even tapped into his awesomeness. He will only be 22 years old to start the season, and you can only expect those numbers to go up each year.
And if this is true, the LaRoche signing has added a whole new level of awesomeness. So the Diamondbacks get rid of Byrnes AND he goes to the division rival San Francisco Giants? Sure, at this point, the interest is one-sided, but you know if GM Brian Sabean picks up the paper and sees that column, he will begin to draft a two year contract with a player option third year.
LaRoche is an offensive upgrade over Jackson. The last four seasons, LaRoche has put up a 122, 122, 109 and 130 OPS+ with an on base percentage of .355, .341, .345 and .354. LaRoche is 30 years old and his peak years are behind him, but he is by no means an old man. It would not be far fetched to say that he will contribute 20 home runs and a .350 OBP. If the Diamondbacks can find a decent platoon partner to hit the left handed pitchers, they might have a real force at first base. Check out LaRoche's numbers versus right handed pitchers.
Jackson gets on base more than LaRoche, but he has less pop. He will move to left field in place of Byrnes and whoever else they trotted out there last year. Jackson was injured last year, but the three seasons prior, he sported a 109, 109 and 103 OPS+ and got on base at a .376, .368 and .368 clip. He figures to only improve on those numbers as he enters his prime years. Since Byrnes signed that big three year contract after the very nice 2007 season, he did not have an OBP higher than .272 or an OPS+ of 67. Incredible. He was also injured, which was unfortunately his best offensive contribution.
Jackson turns 28 this year, and easily the Diamondbacks have a very nice, young outfield. In addition to Jackson, the disappointing but entering his peak Chris Young will play center field and the breakout MVP candidate Justin Upton will play right field. If Young is going to have a future in this game, this will be the year he shows his talent. He will start the year at 26. So far, he has proven that he can take a walk, but he can't make much contact with the ball. When he was a rookie and made contact with the ball, he was hitting moonshots. His home runs have dropped from 32 to 22 to 15 in each of the last three years. Upton was an emerging super duper star with slash stats of .300/.366/.532. Those numbers are great, but he hasn't even tapped into his awesomeness. He will only be 22 years old to start the season, and you can only expect those numbers to go up each year.
And if this is true, the LaRoche signing has added a whole new level of awesomeness. So the Diamondbacks get rid of Byrnes AND he goes to the division rival San Francisco Giants? Sure, at this point, the interest is one-sided, but you know if GM Brian Sabean picks up the paper and sees that column, he will begin to draft a two year contract with a player option third year.
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