Monday, October 4, 2010

Max Scherzer is a Solid Two

In that big three way trade last off season, the Detroit Tigers came away with the best player--so far. Curtis Granderson made the most headlines, Edwin Jackson pitched an eight walk no hitter, but Max Scherzer is a true top of the rotation pitcher.

After heading to the minors, it didn't look like Scherzer was going to be better than another pitcher involved in the deal, Ian Kennedy. The two pitchers faced off, and I wrote about it. In the game recap, I wrote this:

"Going into this game, it looks like Kennedy has had a better year than Scherzer--especially if you use ERA as the basis of your argument. Scherzer has a 6.14 ERA and Kennedy has a 3.57 ERA."

And after doing some deeper analysis, I concluded with this:

"Both pitchers have very similar rate stats. If Scherzer can lower his home run rate to somewhere closer to his career of 1.1/9, his ERA will drop and if Kennedy can do the same, he will be able to sustain his ERA."

Now the season is over and here is how they ended up.


191 innings, 111 ERA+, 1.2 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 7.8 so/9, 2.40 so/bb, 2.5 fangraph's war


195.2 innings, 120 ERA+, .9 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 8.5 so/9, 2.63 so/bb, 3.7 fangraph's war

Both pitchers had nice seasons. Early on, it looked like Scherzer was going to flame out, but it is clear that Scherzer is turning into a stud.

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