A few weeks before the All-Star break, I wrote about major league baseball players having unlikely breakout first halves. You can read it here. The purpose of this post was to see some of these guys come back to earth after an awesome first few months of the season. I will first restate the stats as of June 27, 2010 and then will compile their end of the season stats.
Brennan Boesch
.337/.389/.611 162 OPS+
.256/.320/.416 99 OPS+
Boesch essentially went from Albert Pujols numbers to a tick below average hitter.
Paul Konerko
.302/.396/.583 157 OPS+
.312/.393/.583 158 OPS+
Konerko had a very consistent season, and there's even talks about him for MVP. Those talks have softened a bit as the Chicago White Sox fell out of contention. Really, he's not even the best offensive first baseman in the American League. Still. There's nothing bad about those numbers.
Vernon Wells
.281/.336/.562 141 OPS+
.273/.331/.515 127 OPS+
Wells got off to a great start. He showed the skills that awarded him an insanely high contract. I called shenanigans. While he cooled off a bit, he had a fine season. His on base skills are average, but when he connects on a ball, he certainly drives it.
Alex Rios
.311/.369/.541 139 OPS+
.284/.334/.457 109 OPS+
The paragraph that describes Wells can be copy/pasted here. Minus the part where I wrote, "but when he connects on a ball, he certainly drives it."
Corey Hart
.272/.339/.576 144 OPS+
.283/.340/.525 132 OPS+
Hart made the All-Star team and was rewarded with a contract extension. He had a nice year, but I would be shocked if his production continues on to next season and beyond.
Josh Willingham
.277/.408/.498 144 OPS+
.268/.389/.459 129 OPS+
Did you know that Willingham's career OPS+ is 121? Did you also know that he is 31 years old? Nevertheless, he had a very good offensive season. The .408 on base percentage stuck out for me when I made this initial list, but a .389 on base percentage is very good.
Aubrey Huff
.298/.389/.520 138 OPS+
.290/.385/.506 138 OPS+
Huff remained consistent throughout the season, however, if you look at his career, there is nothing consistent about him. I wouldn't be shocked to see an OPS+ under 100 next season. That is, after San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean rewards him with a 3 year $40 million contract this off season.
Kelly Johnson
.264/.366/.494 121 OPS+
.284/.370/.496 128 OPS+
Johnson improved as the season went on. A second baseman with a good on base percentage and some power is a great commodity. He is truly an underrated player this season. It is hard to judge if he will continue this good performance or drop in production since there isn't a ton of games under his belt.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Max Scherzer is a Solid Two
In that big three way trade last off season, the Detroit Tigers came away with the best player--so far. Curtis Granderson made the most headlines, Edwin Jackson pitched an eight walk no hitter, but Max Scherzer is a true top of the rotation pitcher.
After heading to the minors, it didn't look like Scherzer was going to be better than another pitcher involved in the deal, Ian Kennedy. The two pitchers faced off, and I wrote about it. In the game recap, I wrote this:
"Going into this game, it looks like Kennedy has had a better year than Scherzer--especially if you use ERA as the basis of your argument. Scherzer has a 6.14 ERA and Kennedy has a 3.57 ERA."
And after doing some deeper analysis, I concluded with this:
"Both pitchers have very similar rate stats. If Scherzer can lower his home run rate to somewhere closer to his career of 1.1/9, his ERA will drop and if Kennedy can do the same, he will be able to sustain his ERA."
Now the season is over and here is how they ended up.
Kennedy:
191 innings, 111 ERA+, 1.2 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 7.8 so/9, 2.40 so/bb, 2.5 fangraph's war
Scherzer:
195.2 innings, 120 ERA+, .9 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 8.5 so/9, 2.63 so/bb, 3.7 fangraph's war
Both pitchers had nice seasons. Early on, it looked like Scherzer was going to flame out, but it is clear that Scherzer is turning into a stud.
After heading to the minors, it didn't look like Scherzer was going to be better than another pitcher involved in the deal, Ian Kennedy. The two pitchers faced off, and I wrote about it. In the game recap, I wrote this:
"Going into this game, it looks like Kennedy has had a better year than Scherzer--especially if you use ERA as the basis of your argument. Scherzer has a 6.14 ERA and Kennedy has a 3.57 ERA."
And after doing some deeper analysis, I concluded with this:
"Both pitchers have very similar rate stats. If Scherzer can lower his home run rate to somewhere closer to his career of 1.1/9, his ERA will drop and if Kennedy can do the same, he will be able to sustain his ERA."
Now the season is over and here is how they ended up.
Kennedy:
191 innings, 111 ERA+, 1.2 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 7.8 so/9, 2.40 so/bb, 2.5 fangraph's war
Scherzer:
195.2 innings, 120 ERA+, .9 hr/9, 3.2 bb/9, 8.5 so/9, 2.63 so/bb, 3.7 fangraph's war
Both pitchers had nice seasons. Early on, it looked like Scherzer was going to flame out, but it is clear that Scherzer is turning into a stud.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Is Tom Glavine a future Hall of Famer?
Tom Glavine will be in the Hall of Fame when he is eligible. The 305 wins alone will get him into the Hall of Fame. The question is: will voters look at other (real) statistics?
Wins are a dumb stat. We all know this. The team wins and loses games. One pitcher does not determine the outcome of a game alone unless that pitcher hits a home run and strikes out every batter he faces.
Felix Hernandez gave up one run in a complete game loss today against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Lopez gave up four runs in five innings in a winning effort against the Colorado Rockies yesterday. Did Lopez have the better game? Of course not.
Glavine's career rate stats are not Hall of Fame impressive: .7 hr/9, 3.1 bb/9, 5.3 so/9 and 1.74 so/bb. In his 1991 Cy Young year (his best season), he had the following rate stats: .6 hr/9, 2.5 bb/9, 7.0 so/9 and 2.78 so/bb. He had a 5.7 WAR that season, which is impressive.
I tweeted the question to Fangraphs baseball writer Dave Cameron:
"Do you think Tom Glavine is a hall of famer? After looking at his career rate stats and other advanced metrics, maybe not?"
He replied back to me:
"An easy yes."
Looking beyond his rate stats: His career WAR is 68.6 with a career FIP is 3.95. His FIP ranks 38 out of 40 pitchers with 4,000 innings pitched (or 118 out of 131 pitchers with 3,000 innings pitched. I'm still having a hard time building a Hall of Fame case from these numbers.
But then I took a look at his WAR rankings. This list does not include seasons prior to 1980, but Glavine ranks 9th. He is just above Andy Pettitte but behind Kevin Brown.
I completely respect Cameron's opinion, and he is my favorite baseball writer. I do have to disagree because I think his case is, at least, debatable.
Wins are a dumb stat. We all know this. The team wins and loses games. One pitcher does not determine the outcome of a game alone unless that pitcher hits a home run and strikes out every batter he faces.
Felix Hernandez gave up one run in a complete game loss today against the Toronto Blue Jays. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Lopez gave up four runs in five innings in a winning effort against the Colorado Rockies yesterday. Did Lopez have the better game? Of course not.
Glavine's career rate stats are not Hall of Fame impressive: .7 hr/9, 3.1 bb/9, 5.3 so/9 and 1.74 so/bb. In his 1991 Cy Young year (his best season), he had the following rate stats: .6 hr/9, 2.5 bb/9, 7.0 so/9 and 2.78 so/bb. He had a 5.7 WAR that season, which is impressive.
I tweeted the question to Fangraphs baseball writer Dave Cameron:
"Do you think Tom Glavine is a hall of famer? After looking at his career rate stats and other advanced metrics, maybe not?"
He replied back to me:
"An easy yes."
Looking beyond his rate stats: His career WAR is 68.6 with a career FIP is 3.95. His FIP ranks 38 out of 40 pitchers with 4,000 innings pitched (or 118 out of 131 pitchers with 3,000 innings pitched. I'm still having a hard time building a Hall of Fame case from these numbers.
But then I took a look at his WAR rankings. This list does not include seasons prior to 1980, but Glavine ranks 9th. He is just above Andy Pettitte but behind Kevin Brown.
I completely respect Cameron's opinion, and he is my favorite baseball writer. I do have to disagree because I think his case is, at least, debatable.
Monday, August 9, 2010
A Quick Glance at the MLB Standings
From my season prediction's post I had ranked the following teams as playoff teams:
"The American League playoff spots: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox. The National League playoff spots: Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks."
Right now, the Yankees, Rangers and Braves are playoff teams. The White Sox and Twins are tied for the division. The Cardinals and Phillies are closing in on the division and are battling the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card. The Red Sox are six games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the Wild Card, and they have been killed by injuries. The only bad prediction would be the Diamondbacks.
I also mentioned this:
"I feel that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Seattle Mariners will be disappointments in the American League as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles and the San Francisco Giants will disappoint in the National League."
The Angels and Mariners are disappointments as they are third and fourth in their division. The Dodgers are fourth in their division. The Giants are battling the San Diego Padres for the division and currently lead the Wild Card race.
Stay tuned.
"The American League playoff spots: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Chicago White Sox. The National League playoff spots: Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks."
Right now, the Yankees, Rangers and Braves are playoff teams. The White Sox and Twins are tied for the division. The Cardinals and Phillies are closing in on the division and are battling the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card. The Red Sox are six games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the Wild Card, and they have been killed by injuries. The only bad prediction would be the Diamondbacks.
I also mentioned this:
"I feel that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Seattle Mariners will be disappointments in the American League as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles and the San Francisco Giants will disappoint in the National League."
The Angels and Mariners are disappointments as they are third and fourth in their division. The Dodgers are fourth in their division. The Giants are battling the San Diego Padres for the division and currently lead the Wild Card race.
Stay tuned.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
The Mustached GM Adds Former ROY Runner-Up
The Los Angeles Dodgers traded two minor leaguers to the Kansas City Royals for 2005 all-star Scott Podsednik.
The Dodgers gave up triple A catcher Lucas May and A-ball pitcher Elisaul Pimentel. The Dodgers will also pay Podsednik's remaining salary this year. In 73 triple A games, May has a triple slash stats line of .300/.356/.500. He turns 26 years old this year, however.
When I first heard about this trade on the radio, my first thoughts were, and I am channeling my inner Ned Colletti by the way, former All-Star (one time), rookie of the year runner up, former stolen base leader and owner of a shiny World Series ring.
Here's Colletti's take:
"He has been a World Series champion with the Chicago White Sox [in 2005]," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said. "He brings speed, he is a good hitter, he can play left field or center field if necessary, and he can drive in runs. With Reed Johnson and Manny being out and not knowing exactly when they'll be back and not knowing if they will have additional issues the rest of the season, this is a safeguard against them having any trouble staying on the field."
World Series champion is meaningless. Certainly the pitching, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye had a much larger role. Podsednik played well for the Chicago White Sox during their World Series run, but in said World Series, he got on base 28.6% of the time--I know only 22 plate appearances but still meaningless to include that as the reason to trade for him.
He does steal a lot of bases, but he also gets caught stealing a lot too--leading the league in that category two times and the leader this season. For his career, he has stolen a base at a 75% rate. This year, he is at 71.4% and last year he was at 69.7%. He is 34 years old, so it isn't unreasonable to note that his speed has diminished somewhat.
Podsednik isn't a useless player, but it is a mildly useless trade. He fills in nicely as a bench player and an okay pinch runner. It's not as bad as giving up Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, but it's just a ho-hum typical Colletti move--trading away young players for old veterans who once upon a time played in a World Series or an All-Star game.
One more thing. The article ends with this pearl:
"Podsednik is expected to arrive in time for Thursday's game against the San Diego Padres, and the Dodgers will announce a corresponding move at that time. The club probably will do one of three things: (1) Option outfielder Xavier Paul to Albuquerque, (2) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment or (3) send a reliever to the minors, thus reducing the pitching staff from the 13 the Dodgers have carried for the past week to the more conventional 12."
If you had to rank those, wouldn't you rank them (1) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment, (2) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment and (3) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment?
While Anderson used to be an All-Star, he does own a .182/.206/.277 31 OPS+ stat line. While it is ridiculous that the Dodgers carry 13 relief pitchers, keep in mind Joe Torre goes through relief pitchers recklessly. Chad Billingsley pitched the Dodgers first complete game on July 21st since the 2008 season.
What did the Dodgers do? They designated pitcher Jack Taschner for assignment. Sure, that's not a bad idea, but somehow, someway Garret Anderson is on the roster.
The Dodgers gave up triple A catcher Lucas May and A-ball pitcher Elisaul Pimentel. The Dodgers will also pay Podsednik's remaining salary this year. In 73 triple A games, May has a triple slash stats line of .300/.356/.500. He turns 26 years old this year, however.
When I first heard about this trade on the radio, my first thoughts were, and I am channeling my inner Ned Colletti by the way, former All-Star (one time), rookie of the year runner up, former stolen base leader and owner of a shiny World Series ring.
Here's Colletti's take:
"He has been a World Series champion with the Chicago White Sox [in 2005]," Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti said. "He brings speed, he is a good hitter, he can play left field or center field if necessary, and he can drive in runs. With Reed Johnson and Manny being out and not knowing exactly when they'll be back and not knowing if they will have additional issues the rest of the season, this is a safeguard against them having any trouble staying on the field."
World Series champion is meaningless. Certainly the pitching, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye had a much larger role. Podsednik played well for the Chicago White Sox during their World Series run, but in said World Series, he got on base 28.6% of the time--I know only 22 plate appearances but still meaningless to include that as the reason to trade for him.
He does steal a lot of bases, but he also gets caught stealing a lot too--leading the league in that category two times and the leader this season. For his career, he has stolen a base at a 75% rate. This year, he is at 71.4% and last year he was at 69.7%. He is 34 years old, so it isn't unreasonable to note that his speed has diminished somewhat.
Podsednik isn't a useless player, but it is a mildly useless trade. He fills in nicely as a bench player and an okay pinch runner. It's not as bad as giving up Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, but it's just a ho-hum typical Colletti move--trading away young players for old veterans who once upon a time played in a World Series or an All-Star game.
One more thing. The article ends with this pearl:
"Podsednik is expected to arrive in time for Thursday's game against the San Diego Padres, and the Dodgers will announce a corresponding move at that time. The club probably will do one of three things: (1) Option outfielder Xavier Paul to Albuquerque, (2) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment or (3) send a reliever to the minors, thus reducing the pitching staff from the 13 the Dodgers have carried for the past week to the more conventional 12."
If you had to rank those, wouldn't you rank them (1) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment, (2) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment and (3) designate veteran outfielder Garret Anderson for assignment?
While Anderson used to be an All-Star, he does own a .182/.206/.277 31 OPS+ stat line. While it is ridiculous that the Dodgers carry 13 relief pitchers, keep in mind Joe Torre goes through relief pitchers recklessly. Chad Billingsley pitched the Dodgers first complete game on July 21st since the 2008 season.
What did the Dodgers do? They designated pitcher Jack Taschner for assignment. Sure, that's not a bad idea, but somehow, someway Garret Anderson is on the roster.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Garret Anderson
Somehow Garret Anderson has played played 62 games and have 132 plate appearances. He is used primarily as a spot starter and pinch hitter. His line this year:
.183/.198/.286 with a 32 OPS+
Not only is he not a good pinch hitter, but he's not even a pinch walker. Let's see if he is still on the Los Angeles Dodgers roster at the end of the season!
.183/.198/.286 with a 32 OPS+
Not only is he not a good pinch hitter, but he's not even a pinch walker. Let's see if he is still on the Los Angeles Dodgers roster at the end of the season!
Friday, July 2, 2010
Business Card for Biznass
I went to a party with my friend Melissa. When we arrived at the party, it was pretty much dead. We got there at 10, so we were expecting people to show up within an hour. This gave us time to catch-up.
“I still keep getting messages from Amanda,” I said.
“And you guys stopped dating three months ago?” she asked.
“Yeah, and she broke up with me. Apparently, she wants to get back with me.”
“And you don’t want that?”
“No way. Not after the way it ended. Plus, she has too much drama. It’s just annoying. Also, her laughs. She needs an inhaler when she laughs. I can’t be funny.”
“You’re not funny.”
“Well, sometimes I say something that is funny…” I said. “Oh, hey, before I forget, I got a new phone number.”
“What’s the number?”
“I don’t know. I’ll call you.”
I called her. At this time, people started showing up. Melissa went to go talk to guys, and I decided to talk to girls.
“Hey, so we’re at a party,” I said.
“Yeah, looks like we are,” one of the girls said.
“What’s in the red cup?” I asked.
“Beer from that keg,” she said.
“You’ll never see juice in a keg. It’s always in a box. I want to do a keg stand to minute maid. Wouldn’t that be fun?”
At this point, we just kind of looked at each other and parted ways. I never have productive things to say. Conversation wise, I’m best suited to find a girl who watches VH1.
I met back up with Melissa.
"I completely bombed," I said.
"Bad jokes?" she asked.
"I gotta start writing jokes beforehand. I can't make anything up on the fly.”
"Do you think that would make a difference?"
"Probably not. How about yourself? I saw you talking to a guy over there.”
"Yeah, Brad. He's okay. He gave me his business card and told me to call him for a date.”
"Are you going to call him?"
"No, he should make the first move. It's tacky.”
"Let me see the card.”
Melissa hands me the card.
"Okay, while you're looking at that, I'm going to talk to my friend," she said.
The card was plain white with the phone number in black. Under the number, it read “call me, baby.” I stuck the business card in my pocket and went for a walk around the party.
While I was walking, I overheard two girls talking about The Surreal Life. That caught my attention, so I decided to join in.
“Hey, sorry I couldn’t resist, but I love that show,” I said.
“I can’t believe C.C. botched that Go Fish game,” she said.
“No kidding. I’m Ryan, by the way.”
“”Hi, I’m Ariel.”
“Who do you think is the most famous? I think it's Vanilla Ice.”
“It has to be Ron Jeremy. I mean, Sublime referenced him in a song,” she said. “But I really have to get going. I have work in the morning.”
“Well, I’d love to hang out with you. Perhaps we could watch The White Rapper Show together some time.”
She gave me her number, so I called her so she could have mine.
“So you don’t have a business card?” she asked as she showed me a card Brad gave her.
“So that guy gave you a business card?” I asked.
“Yeah, what a tool.”
“I know. He gave my friend a business card. I guess he’s hoping someone will call or text him.”
We gave each other a hug, and Ariel left. I met back up with Melissa. I told her all about Ariel, and she told me about a cool guy named David. Our night was going well. That was until I saw Amanda walking in. She saw me and walked toward me. Fortunately, Melissa was next to me. That is until she decided to go talk to David some more. I was alone.
“Hey Ryan, I’ve been thinking about you. What’s up?” Amanda asked.
“Oh, nothing much. Just drinking fruit juice,” I said.
“That’s funny. I tried calling you yesterday, but it said that the number was no longer in service. Did you get a new phone?”
“Yeah, it’s the new chocolate. It’s pretty cool.”
“What’s your new phone number? We should hang out soon.”
“Ummm,” I hesitated.
I reached into my pocked, pulled out Brad’s business card, and I gave it to her.
“I still keep getting messages from Amanda,” I said.
“And you guys stopped dating three months ago?” she asked.
“Yeah, and she broke up with me. Apparently, she wants to get back with me.”
“And you don’t want that?”
“No way. Not after the way it ended. Plus, she has too much drama. It’s just annoying. Also, her laughs. She needs an inhaler when she laughs. I can’t be funny.”
“You’re not funny.”
“Well, sometimes I say something that is funny…” I said. “Oh, hey, before I forget, I got a new phone number.”
“What’s the number?”
“I don’t know. I’ll call you.”
I called her. At this time, people started showing up. Melissa went to go talk to guys, and I decided to talk to girls.
“Hey, so we’re at a party,” I said.
“Yeah, looks like we are,” one of the girls said.
“What’s in the red cup?” I asked.
“Beer from that keg,” she said.
“You’ll never see juice in a keg. It’s always in a box. I want to do a keg stand to minute maid. Wouldn’t that be fun?”
At this point, we just kind of looked at each other and parted ways. I never have productive things to say. Conversation wise, I’m best suited to find a girl who watches VH1.
I met back up with Melissa.
"I completely bombed," I said.
"Bad jokes?" she asked.
"I gotta start writing jokes beforehand. I can't make anything up on the fly.”
"Do you think that would make a difference?"
"Probably not. How about yourself? I saw you talking to a guy over there.”
"Yeah, Brad. He's okay. He gave me his business card and told me to call him for a date.”
"Are you going to call him?"
"No, he should make the first move. It's tacky.”
"Let me see the card.”
Melissa hands me the card.
"Okay, while you're looking at that, I'm going to talk to my friend," she said.
The card was plain white with the phone number in black. Under the number, it read “call me, baby.” I stuck the business card in my pocket and went for a walk around the party.
While I was walking, I overheard two girls talking about The Surreal Life. That caught my attention, so I decided to join in.
“Hey, sorry I couldn’t resist, but I love that show,” I said.
“I can’t believe C.C. botched that Go Fish game,” she said.
“No kidding. I’m Ryan, by the way.”
“”Hi, I’m Ariel.”
“Who do you think is the most famous? I think it's Vanilla Ice.”
“It has to be Ron Jeremy. I mean, Sublime referenced him in a song,” she said. “But I really have to get going. I have work in the morning.”
“Well, I’d love to hang out with you. Perhaps we could watch The White Rapper Show together some time.”
She gave me her number, so I called her so she could have mine.
“So you don’t have a business card?” she asked as she showed me a card Brad gave her.
“So that guy gave you a business card?” I asked.
“Yeah, what a tool.”
“I know. He gave my friend a business card. I guess he’s hoping someone will call or text him.”
We gave each other a hug, and Ariel left. I met back up with Melissa. I told her all about Ariel, and she told me about a cool guy named David. Our night was going well. That was until I saw Amanda walking in. She saw me and walked toward me. Fortunately, Melissa was next to me. That is until she decided to go talk to David some more. I was alone.
“Hey Ryan, I’ve been thinking about you. What’s up?” Amanda asked.
“Oh, nothing much. Just drinking fruit juice,” I said.
“That’s funny. I tried calling you yesterday, but it said that the number was no longer in service. Did you get a new phone?”
“Yeah, it’s the new chocolate. It’s pretty cool.”
“What’s your new phone number? We should hang out soon.”
“Ummm,” I hesitated.
I reached into my pocked, pulled out Brad’s business card, and I gave it to her.
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