Sunday, November 21, 2010

Derek Jeter's Free Agency

The latest story in the Derek Jeter free agency story is his agent calling the Yankees offer of 3 years and $45 million baffling. His points:

"Derek's significance to the team is much more than just stats. And yet, the Yankees' negotiating strategy remains baffling."


His production last season was poor. Beyond the stats, he is an old shortstop. If the negotiation strategy is so baffling, maybe his agent should go to other teams to see what they would offer. The reason he doesn't: the Yankees are willing to overpay to keep him because of his significance to the team. His significance, however, isn't going to make or break the World Series projections.

"They continue to argue their points in the press and refuse to acknowledge Derek's total contribution to their franchise," Close added, according to the report.


His total contribution was in his last contract of 10 years and $189 million. Also, offering him $15 million a year for three years is one year and $25 million too much. He is coming off a 90 OPS+ season. He is also 36 years old, so it is more likely to remain at that level or go down rather than revert to his 125 OPS+ production the year before.

From Hal Steinbrenner:

"Look, this is a business negotiation,'' Hal Steinbrenner said of the talks last week. "None of us wants to make it personal, because it's not personal. ... My family's got a lot of respect for Derek and I believe it is a mutual thing. It's been a good history. We're gonna do our best to keep it by the book."


Voice of reason. The Yankees foolishly overpaid for Alex Rodriguez when nobody else would've come close. They gave outlandish contracts. Those days are over (maybe). I am interested to see how this plays out. The agent is there to get the most years and most dollars for his player. But I don't see any team offering Jeter a fourth year. And right now, Jeter and his agent look bad.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

A Guide to Blind Dating: In Braille!

I was sitting at a table by the coffee shop at the outdoor mall with my roommate Jake.

“You know that girl I met at the party a couple nights ago?” I asked pulling out a post-it note with a phone number. “I tried calling her this morning, and it directed me to the rejection hot line.”

“Ouch,” Jake said.

“Right?” I said sipping on my lukewarm coffee. “I guess it’s just easier than saying, ‘Sorry dude, I’m really just not interested.”

“Let me see that,” he said.

I gave him the post-it note. He looked at it for a second and then put it in his pocket.

“What are you going to do with that?” I asked.

“You never know when it can come in handy,” he said.

A beautiful brunette was walking her dog and passed Jake and me. She was wearing all black and complimented the look with very opaque sunglasses.

“She is cute,” I said.

“Go up to her,” Jake said.

“Nah, I can’t. She doesn’t look like she wants to be bothered,” I said. “Plus she is walking her dog. Dogs don’t really like me.”

A grade-school-aged boy with full camouflage face paint was running around pretend shooting pretend people.

“You should throw this tennis ball at this kid,” I said pulling a tennis ball out from my backpack.

“Where did you get that tennis ball?” Jake asked.

“What? I like tennis balls.”

“I don’t want to throw it. You throw it.”

I threw the tennis ball aiming for his chest, but it him smack against his nose. The kid looked at us and ran away.

“Well, that didn’t work out,” I said.

“We should probably leave,” Jake said.

Later that day, Jake and I were sitting in the living room at our apartment. On the couch next to me was our cat, Fredo. Fredo is a very large cat with paws that resemble human hands in front and human feet in the back.

“Did you break up with Samantha yet?” I asked.

“I can’t. It’s hard. I don’t know what to say,” Jake said.

“Just start insulting her.”

“I tried. She thinks I’m playing hard to get. She seems to like me more when I insult.”

“Compliment?”

“No because I don’t want to give her the wrong idea.”

“She is really ugly.”

“I know,” Jake said. “I’ll probably end up marrying her.”

The telephone rings. Jake picks up and starts talking. A few minutes later, Jake pulls out his wallet and gives his credit card number over the phone.

“What was that?” I asked.

“I just bought the Total Gym,” Jake said.

“You don’t even work out.”

“I know, but it’s kind of code in the telemarketing community to buy products from each other.”

“You never sell products at your job.”

Jake checked his phone for text messages.

“Samantha texted me,” Jake said. “She said she has someone perfect for you.”

“What are you talking about?” I asked.

“We were talking about how you never go on dates, and I guess she found someone for you.”

“I go on dates!”

“Yeah, but they never work out.” Jake responded to the text message. A few minutes later, he checks his phone for a reply. “Samantha said her friend will call you later.”

“You gave her my number?”

“Yeah, just talk to her. Samantha has cute friends.”

“Alright, I can go for that,” I said. I stuck my hand out and gave a high five to Fredo.

Later that night I was playing solitaire and my cell phone rang.

“Hey, it’s Ryan,” I said.

“Hi, I’m looking to speak to Ryan,” a girl said. “Oh, I’m sorry, you said your name. It’s Denise.”

“Hey Denise. I’m not sure who you are.”

“I’m friends with Samantha. She said she is dating your friend and I guess is trying to play matchmaker.”

“Oh, right. Okay. Yeah, that’s cool.”

“Yeah.”

“Well, how are you?”

“This is kind of awkward, isn’t it?”

“Yeah, do you want meet at a coffee shop tomorrow night? Maybe if we meet it’ll be better?” I asked. “There’s this great place by the outdoor mall.”

“Sure, that sounds good.”

“Okay, does seven work?”

“Yeah.”

“Okay.”

“Alright.”

“Okay bye.”

I went to the living room where Jake was playing solitaire.

“Your girlfriend’s friend Denise just called me,” I said.

“Oh yeah?” he asked. “How was it?”

“Dude, it was really awkward. I didn’t even know what to talk about. We agreed to meet up tomorrow night,” I said. “I’m just scared because I don’t even know what she looks like.”

“What’s your breaking point? Kids? Pimples?”

“I love kids,” I said. “Not sure about pimples, but I could deal with that.”

“You should be okay,” he said. “But if it doesn’t work out, we should have a plan.”

“Like what?”

“I’ll give you a call at the beginning of your date,” he said. “Like an exit call. If you know it’s not going to work out, you can just make up some random excuse with me on the phone and leave.”

“Okay, that could work.”

“So Samantha and I are going to hang out at the beach tomorrow afternoon.”

“Are you going to break up with her?”

“I can’t,” Jake said. “I’m going to bring Fredo with me so I have at least something friendly.”

The next day Jake and Fredo met up with Samantha at the beach.

“Hey there,” Jake said.

“What is that?” Samantha asked pointing at Fredo.

“It’s my cat Fredo,” Jake said. “I thought I’d take him for a walk and get him out of the house.”

“Yeah, but he has like hands and feet.”

“It’s a little unusual.”

“Jake, I can’t be seen with this cat.”

“What are you saying?”

“I’m saying get rid of this cat or it’s over.”

“I’m not getting rid of Fredo.”

“Well, then it’s over.”

“Really?”

“Yeah, you’re not even sad.”

“No.”

“Whatever.” Samantha left while Jake high fived Fredo.

A cute blond came up to Jake and Fredo. “That’s a really cute cat,” she said.

“I think you’re a cute cat,” Jake said. A few moments later, “Okay, that was bad.”

“Yeah that was,” she said laughing.

“I’m Jake.”

“I’m Melissa.”

“I know it’s kind of bold, but I would like to hang out sometime. Can I get your number?” Jake sneezed all over Melissa. “Oh gosh, I’m sorry. That was bad.”

“It’s okay, but strike two, buddy,” she said wiping her face with a napkin.

“I actually don’t have a phone,” she said. “But my roommate does. So why don’t you give me your number?”

Jake reached into his pocket and pulled out a post-it note. “Here you go,” he said handing her the post-it note. He quickly realized that he just gave her the rejection hot line number. “Actually, wait, let me give you this number instead.” Jake and Melissa traded post-it notes. Jake noticed a tennis ball coming right at him from the corner of his eye. In his defense, he ducked behind Melissa. The tennis ball hit her smack against her nose. “Oh, umm, so you’ll call me tomorrow?”

Later that night I met up with Denise at the coffee shop. As I walked in, I saw a brunette wearing all black and opaque sunglasses. By her side was a dog. I approached her, “Denise?”

“Yeah,” she said. “Is this Ryan?”

“Yeah,” I said. “Wow, you look amazing.”

“Thanks,” she said. “I got us coffee. I hope you like mocha.”

“Yeah, definitely.” My phone rang. It was Jake calling about the exit plan. I picked up.

“Hey man, it’s all good,” I hung up the phone.

“What was that about?” Denise asked.

“Oh, it’s nothing,” I said. “So I got a new haircut. What do you think?”

“I can’t see it.”

“Well, take off your sunglasses, silly.”

“I’m blind.”

“Ohhhhh,” I said. “Well, that’s cool. I’m glad you aren’t able to see what I look like then.”

“Why’s that?”

“Because I have a ton of acne,” I said. A few moments later, “Totally joking by the way.”

The boy with war paint walked into the coffee shop.

“Oh my gosh,” I said. “Don’t look. Well, it’s not like you can see. But this kid with war paint just walked in. I totally beaned him with a tennis ball yesterday. We need to leave.”

“That’s my son, you jerk,” she said.

The boy came up to the table. “Mom, why are you hanging out with this guy?”

I ran away.

The next afternoon, Jake and I were sitting on the couch in our living room.

“You ran?” Jake asked.

“Yeah, what else was I supposed to do,” I said. “I had to get out, but her dog bit me.” I showed Jake my arm that had a deep bite mark.

“I thought seeing-eye dogs were friendly.”

“Yeah, but dogs hate me.”

“Samantha broke up with me yesterday,” Jake said.

“Really? What did you do?” I asked.

“Nothing. She didn’t want to be seen with Fredo,” he said. “After she left, this cute blond came up to me. We started talking, and I gave her my phone number.”

“I don’t know how you do it, man.”

“It went okay, but I don’t think she will call,” he said. “I kind of hid behind her and let a tennis ball hit her in the face. And then I kind of ran away.”

“It looks like you have a voice mail. Your phone is blinking. Maybe it’s her?”

Jake played the voice mail, all automated, “The person leaving this message has no interest in dating you. Please try again.”

Monday, November 1, 2010

San Francisco Giants win the world series

Tim Lincecum pitches eight innings and strikes out ten, and Edgar Renteria hits a key three run home run off Cliff Lee in the San Francisco Giants world series victory over the Texas Rangers.

Going into the World Series, I wrote that the Giants would beat the Rangers in the World Series. Just a quick look at ESPN writers' picks, and you will see that 9 of the 10 writers thought the Rangers would win. In a rough analysis, the Rangers have better hitters and equal pitching. It makes sense that the Rangers would win. The Giants have home field advantage (not a big thing but something) and a much better head coach. Bruce Bochy is not in the elite two of managers (Joe Maddon and Terry Francona), but he is in that group of 12 or so average managers--meaning he is in the top 14. Ron Washington is in the pretty bad manager group. This is an edge because until this game, Washington had not used his best relief pitcher, Neftali Feliz, in a non-save situation. He also put Vladimir Guererro in the outfield, used Darren Oliver too much and kept Derek Holland in a game in which he couldn't throw a strike and walked three batters--opening up a huge inning.

The Giants staff was awesome, but the Rangers staff, save Lee, was underrated and equally as awesome. It was clear to me that the Rangers would win the game started by Colby Lewis and the Giants would win the game started by Madison Bumgarner. The Matt Cain and C.J. Wilson match-up favored Cain, but not by much. The Lincecum and Cliff Lee match-up favored Lee but realizing that Lincecum can out-Lee Lee if you will. I figured the Giants would win in six if Lincecum was epic in one of the two games against Lee--and he was in game five. In game one, Lincecum was average and Lee did not pitch well. It didn't help that the relief pitchers in that game were equally brutal. I thought that if it went to a game seven, the Rangers would have the edge as far as fielded players, but Bochy would put in Lincecum, Bumgarner, whoever if Sanchez showed any signs of not being effective. And when it comes to a close game, it's hard to trust Washington's instincts.

The Giants won the World Series because of their pitching and Bruce Bochy managing pretty brilliantly. Brilliance is a bit of hyperbole, but it's hard to question most of his decisions. He deserves the compliments even if it doesn't extend to next year.

I've questioned Brian Sabean's game plan. Believe me, he is not a great general manager. Keep in mind that Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito and Mark DeRosa are under contract during this World Series, and Zito and DeRosa are not on the postseason roster. Rowand is a bench player.

I didn't like the Aubrey Huff or Edgar Renteria signings, but they have played a huge role in the Giants quest for a World Series title. They along with Buster Posey, Juan Uribe, Cody Ross, Freddy Sanchez, Pat Burrell, the Giants pitching and Bruce Bochy won the World Series.

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Madison Bumgarner

Madison Bumgarner pitched eight shut out innings to move the San Francisco Giants one game closer to a World Series title. In the 4-0 victory over the Texas Rangers, Bumgarner just needed the two run home run from Aubrey Huff in the third inning.

In 121 major league innings, Bumgarner has a 3.31 so/bb ratio. Today, he struck out six and walked two. He was sharp from start to finish. Brian Wilson finished the game with two strikeouts in the ninth inning.

This game was mostly free of questionable managerial moves. Rangers manager Ron Washington didn't have an opportunity to blow this game. Sure, using Darren Oliver in a two run game was questionable, but the Rangers didn't score a single run.

Going into the World Series, I wrote about how close the starting pitching was between the Giants and the Rangers. Looking at the specific matchups, the Rangers had a clear edge with Colby Lewis over Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez has the stuff to throw a dominating gem, but he also can walk a bunch of batters and get into early trouble. The Rangers also had the advantage with Cliff Lee over Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is an ace and he is capable of out pitching Lee on any given day so that advantage is very small. The Giants have a small edge with Matt Cain over C.J. Wilson, however, it isn't a large enough gap to make a huge difference. All of the games have gone as they should.

Including this game.

Bumgarner has a huge advantage over Tommy Hunter. It's not even close. Hunter doesn't strike out a lot of batters (career 5.1 so/9) and gives up a lot of home runs (career 1.4 hr/9). While he doesn't walk a lot of hitters (career 2.5 bb/9), his control isn't that great to offset the home runs and lack of strike outs.

It would have been fun to see Bumgarner pitch a complete game shut out, it wasn't the worst thing in the world to remove him after eight. That's all they needed from him tonight. And if this reaches a game seven, they will probably need him to replicate his dominance.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Just Watch John Wall

I rarely write about basketball because it's hard to analyze. The available stats aren't that helpful. What I can gather is that: assists are overrated, rebounds are crucial, field goal percentage is the OBP of basketball and defense, like in baseball, is hard to measure without any doubt. Also, per 48 minute rate stats are more important than regular rate stats, point differential shows dominance and blocked shots are only good if it leads to a turnover.

I am a bigger basketball fan than baseball fan. Make no doubt about it. I watch YouTube mix tapes, high school slam dunk contest (remember David Lee beating James "Flight" White in 2001?), Slamball, DVR all-star weekend watch almost every NCAA tournament game and even watch women's college baskeball. Sorry, I don't watch the WNBA.

I'm only writing this because I want my picks on record (in no order).

East:
Heat
Celtics
Magic
Bulls
Hawks
Knicks
Wizards
Bucks

It was hard to come up with an eighth team, believe me.

West:
Lakers
Thunder
Blazers
Jazz
Suns
Rockets
Spurs
Mavericks

The Celtics play great defense and Rajon Rondo is a legitimate top tier point guard. The Heat have King Wade, Sidekick James, Third Wheel Bosh, Mike Miller and a bunch of stuff. Despite the Game 1 beat down from the Celtics over the Heat, I have the Heat in the finals. They'll play better together as the season goes on. The more I think about it though, James should've went to the Bulls. As good as Wade is, playing with super rebounder/defender Joakim Noah and superstud point guard Derrick Rose and their supporting cast gives him the best chance to not only win this year but for future years. But hey, Miami is an awesome city, amirite?

In the West, it's two teams: the Lakers and the Thunder. It's hard to bet against Kobe Bryant...unless he's playing a team with Kevin Durant. The key to this series is the huge advantage the Thunder have in the point guard spot. Russell Westbrook has an insane advantage over Derek Fisher. I will pick the Thunder over the Lakers.

In the Finals, I have the Thunder over the Heat. The Thunder's "big three" (and by the way, most teams have a "big three") have played well together and longer together than Miami's trio. I respect LeBron's game, Wade's game, but neither are on Durant's level.

And here is a mix tape featuring superstud John Wall:

Neftali Feliz is available to pitch the ninth

As I write the game two recap, the San Francisco Giants have a 9-0 lead over the Texas Rangers. Guillermo Mota is pitching with no men on, one out. If the Rangers score ten runs, Neftali Feliz is available for the save.

There are two outs now. Seems unlikely.

Why is that important? Because in the bottom of the eight, the score was 2-0, bases loaded, two outs. Feliz was not in the game. Derek Holland and the other relief pitchers managed to walk in runs, give up hits to guys named Aaron. Suddenly a close game was a blow out.

It was bad enough that Rangers manager Ron Washington went to Darren Oliver after C.J. Wilson left the game with a blister on his pitching hand (Fox gave an awkward close-up). Oliver, who wasn't horrible (and wasn't good), allowed the one runner Wilson left on base to score to make it a 2-0 game.

Mota just walked a batter. Jeff Francoeur is up. Mota vs. Francouer is Bizarro World Series pitching match-up, right? Strike one.

Unless Cliff Lee is pitching his A+ game (most of the time) or Wilson and Colby Lewis are pitching their A- game (sometimes), Washington has been exposed as a horrible in-game manager.

Francouer popped out. Game over. Here's your box score, which includes Matt Cain's effective start--per usual.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Cliff Lee Loses Game 1 of the World Series

Did we ever think Cliff Lee would be on the mound when the team loses a game?

The hype machine created a story using Lee's success as the tie-in and ranked him eighth all time. I'm not here to kill Lee because he is an amazing pitcher. Just look at that 10.28 so/bb ratio this season.

In my World Series post, I mentioned this:

"You have to like the Rangers any time Cliff Lee and Colby Lewis take the mound. They figure to pitch in four games, and that is all the Rangers need to win the World Series. That said, Lee had 4 wins to 6 losses for the Rangers this year, and Lewis had 12 wins and 13 losses. But wait, wins and losses are a meaningless statistic and don't show how dominant Lee was with a 10.28 so/bb (second all time!) and Lewis with a 3.02 so/bb (comparable to Lincecum). Exactly, but the point in this case is that teams can win against those pitchers on the mound. It's unfair to assign those outstanding pitchers with team wins and losses, but there are so many variables in a game--starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching."

The variables are the key to this game. In the fifth inning, balls dropped in for hits. Suddenly, the Giants were up 5 to 2 with two runners on and two outs. With a high pitch count and not getting outs, Rangers manager Ron Washington elected to take Lee out and replace him with Darren O'Day. The next batter, Juan Uribe, hit a three run home run to put the Giants up six. Variables: high pitch count for Lee, relief pitching.

In the eighth inning, Vladimir Guerrero was still playing right field. His horrible fielding contributed to a three run inning to put the game out of reach. Variables: defense, coaching.

All of this contributed to the Giants 11-7 win over the Rangers. While Cliff Lee wasn't great, he was only one piece of the Rangers loss. Starting and relief pitching, hitting, defense, speed and coaching: that's how the Rangers can lose games with Lee on the mound.

The minor subplot of the game: Giants manager Bruce Bochy used seven pitchers and three in the ninth inning to protect, at the time, a seven-run lead. Fortunately for Bochy, Washington's choice of playing Guerrero in right field for a full game overshadowed his odd bullpen usage.