The New York Yankees signed Randy Winn to platoon with Brett Gardner and replace Johnny Damon. Certainly one year of Randy Winn is better than three years of Johnny Damon, but zero years of Randy Winn is better than one year of Randy Winn.
Sure, the Yankees can afford to throw away $2 million, but this is the day of making good moves. Jack Z! That is, unless you are Dayton Moore, Omar Minaya, Ned "The Mustached GM" Coletti or Brian Sabean. (If you click on the link, you get to see one bad move they made this off season). Let's put it this way: Randy Winn was so bad last year that even Sabian wouldn't sign him.
Rob Neyer does a good job outlining the bad of this trade. Here are the key points from his article:
"...He's been almost exactly league-average, as a hitter, in his career, and at (almost) 36 he's not going to suddenly become better than average. So there's your baseline: Slightly below average."
He then adds:
"Unfortunately, it is might slightly more than slightly. Winn's spent the last four seasons in the National League. Two of those seasons were slightly better than average, two were substantially worse. He's older and he's moving to the tougher league and he's leaving a good hitter's park for one that is good for power hitters . . . and Winn's not a power hitter."
Winn was ridiculously bad last year with split stats of .262/.318/.353 and a 75 OPS+. At 35, he was starting his downhill trend. He has never been a superstar and has posted two good hitting seasons in his career. As an everyday outfielder, there is no hope for him to be average, and it is more likely that the atrocious numbers would, at best, replicate. He's not going to be an everyday outfielder. Can the partnership work?
Well, last year Damon .282/.365/.489 line with a 126 OPS+. Winn's really bad hitting stats came against left-handed pitching. Against right-handed pitching, Winn had a .292/.354/.397 line. Gardner overall was .270/.345/.379 and a 93 OPS+. Against left-handed pitching he hit .291/.381/.400. Looks nice, but then you realize that was in only 65 plate appearances.
You're looking at a very weak hitting left field spot with okay on base skills. They won't be able to replace Damon, but one year of below average play in left field is better than overpaying for a few years in Damon, who is not exactly a spring chicken. Besides, the Yankees are going after Carl Crawford next year, right? In the meantime, this signing looks pretty pointless. Might as well just let Gardner play full time.
Showing posts with label Omar Minaya. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Omar Minaya. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Monday, June 2, 2008
Should Willie Randolph keep his job?
Willie Randolph has been in the news lately in regards to his job security. He even has said that a lot of it has to deal with race. Perhaps. But comparing yourself to the Isiah Thomas situation isn't a very good move.
But the question is, should Willie Randolph keep his job?
The Mets are projected to win 93 games. As of now, they are one game above .500 and in third place.
Based on projections, the Mets are underachieving. Certainly that has to do with the players performance. Carlos Delgado has been horrendous this year. He has been on the decline the last two years, but this year, he is well below average with an 82 OPS+. To add to that, he is not a good defensive first baseman. Even with the low OPS+, he only has eight homeruns and a .383 slugging percentage.
Here is how the Mets lineup looks:
1. Jose Reyes
2. Luis Castillo
3. David Wright
4. Carlos Beltran
5. Carlos Delgado
6. Ryan Church
7. Brian Schneider
8. Endy Chavez
9. Pitcher
Without looking at the stats, I can tell you that Carlos Delgado batting 5th is way too high. He really shouldn't be a major league starter, in all honesty, but I feel that him batting 5th is based on past reputation. But at least he isn't batting THIRD like Jeff Kent and his 72 OPS+ for the Dodgers.
David Wright and his team high .920 OPS is the best hitter, and he should bat third. Ryan Church is the second best hitter, yep, and has a .904 OPS. He should bat fourth. Luis Castillo has a .374 on base percentage and is a solid second hitter. Jose Reyes doesn't have an insanely high on base percentage, and perhaps shouldn't lead-off, I'm okay with him leading off because he does have a good OPS. His OPS is .823 with a .345 OBP. Carlos Beltran has a lower OPS, .815, and a higher OBP, .370, so based on the numbers, he should lead-off. But I will buy into the fact that Reyes is a better lead-off candidate.
So my order would be:
1. Jose Reyes
2. Luis Castillo
3. David Wright
4. Ryan Church
5. Carlos Beltran
6. Carlos Delgado
7. Brian Schneider
8. Endy Chavez
9. Pitcher
Really, his only big mistake is not batting Ryan Church higher. He certainly deserves it. And for as horrendous of a hitter Carlos Delgado has been, especially for a first baseman, batting him fifth isn't nearly as bad as it looks. He should be batting sixth, which doesn't make a huge difference.
So what does that mean?
GM Omar Minaya has given Randolph some really bad players. Reyes, Wright, Church, Beltran, and Castillo are all fine hitters. But Delgado, Schneider, and Chavez are horrendous. Delgado's 82 OPS+ makes him the sixth best hitter. That's just a tad below David Ecksteain.
Yikes. And to think, that Schneider and Chavez are worse than that.
Now, I don't feel that Randolph manages pitchers well. No starter has thrown a complete game, which means that a relief pitcher is used in EVERY single game. No breaks.
If you look at the list, the Mets have played 55 games. Seven relief pitchers have thrown in 20 games or more. Pedro Feliciano has thrown in 29 games. That's more than half of the games played!
Aaron Heilman has thrown 26 games, or the second most games pitched for the team. He has an ERA of 6.67, or an ERA+ of 61, which is well well below the average pitcher. He has a WHIP of 1.588. So for every inning he pitches, he gives up one and a half walks and hits per inning pitched. That is significant because if Randolph uses him during the middle of the inning with runners on base, Heilman is likely to give up a hit or two and possibly a run.
Johan Santana has an ERA+ of 127 and a WHIP of 1.200. Both are below his career numbers, but they are both very respectable. He is an ace pitcher.
John Maine has an ERA + of 111 and a WHIP of 1.313. On an elite team, those are probably worthy of a third best pitcher, but he is pitching well.
Oliver Perez has pitched really bad. He has an ERA+ of 84 and a WHIP of 1.525. His past numbers suggest an up and down career. He should be the fifth best pitcher despite below average numbers because he is capable of delivering gems.
Mike Pelfrey has pitched even worse. He has an ERA + of 81 and a WHIP of 1.696. That is horrendous. His past numbers are similar. He should not be a starting pitcher.
The real problem with the Mets is the moves made by Omar Minaya. Carlos Delgado is horrible defensively, and he is a below average hitter. His power numbers are down, and he isn't getting on base.
My only real complaint with Randolph is that Ryan Church isn't batting higher and he over uses Aaron Heilman. Johan Santana and John Maine should pitch deeper into games. Some of those relievers just need a break, and those two pitchers have pitched well. Perhaps Randolph doesn't deserve as much criticism, though he deserves some because the team was projected to win 93 games. However, Randolph really shouldn't have brought up Isiah Thomas when he talked about minority coaches in New York receiving bad treatment by the media.
EDIT: The lineup was written for the lineup as of yesterday. As of today, Randolph made a change and Delgado now bats seventh. Ryan Church bas been moved to fifth, which is much better.
But the question is, should Willie Randolph keep his job?
The Mets are projected to win 93 games. As of now, they are one game above .500 and in third place.
Based on projections, the Mets are underachieving. Certainly that has to do with the players performance. Carlos Delgado has been horrendous this year. He has been on the decline the last two years, but this year, he is well below average with an 82 OPS+. To add to that, he is not a good defensive first baseman. Even with the low OPS+, he only has eight homeruns and a .383 slugging percentage.
Here is how the Mets lineup looks:
1. Jose Reyes
2. Luis Castillo
3. David Wright
4. Carlos Beltran
5. Carlos Delgado
6. Ryan Church
7. Brian Schneider
8. Endy Chavez
9. Pitcher
Without looking at the stats, I can tell you that Carlos Delgado batting 5th is way too high. He really shouldn't be a major league starter, in all honesty, but I feel that him batting 5th is based on past reputation. But at least he isn't batting THIRD like Jeff Kent and his 72 OPS+ for the Dodgers.
David Wright and his team high .920 OPS is the best hitter, and he should bat third. Ryan Church is the second best hitter, yep, and has a .904 OPS. He should bat fourth. Luis Castillo has a .374 on base percentage and is a solid second hitter. Jose Reyes doesn't have an insanely high on base percentage, and perhaps shouldn't lead-off, I'm okay with him leading off because he does have a good OPS. His OPS is .823 with a .345 OBP. Carlos Beltran has a lower OPS, .815, and a higher OBP, .370, so based on the numbers, he should lead-off. But I will buy into the fact that Reyes is a better lead-off candidate.
So my order would be:
1. Jose Reyes
2. Luis Castillo
3. David Wright
4. Ryan Church
5. Carlos Beltran
6. Carlos Delgado
7. Brian Schneider
8. Endy Chavez
9. Pitcher
Really, his only big mistake is not batting Ryan Church higher. He certainly deserves it. And for as horrendous of a hitter Carlos Delgado has been, especially for a first baseman, batting him fifth isn't nearly as bad as it looks. He should be batting sixth, which doesn't make a huge difference.
So what does that mean?
GM Omar Minaya has given Randolph some really bad players. Reyes, Wright, Church, Beltran, and Castillo are all fine hitters. But Delgado, Schneider, and Chavez are horrendous. Delgado's 82 OPS+ makes him the sixth best hitter. That's just a tad below David Ecksteain.
Yikes. And to think, that Schneider and Chavez are worse than that.
Now, I don't feel that Randolph manages pitchers well. No starter has thrown a complete game, which means that a relief pitcher is used in EVERY single game. No breaks.
If you look at the list, the Mets have played 55 games. Seven relief pitchers have thrown in 20 games or more. Pedro Feliciano has thrown in 29 games. That's more than half of the games played!
Aaron Heilman has thrown 26 games, or the second most games pitched for the team. He has an ERA of 6.67, or an ERA+ of 61, which is well well below the average pitcher. He has a WHIP of 1.588. So for every inning he pitches, he gives up one and a half walks and hits per inning pitched. That is significant because if Randolph uses him during the middle of the inning with runners on base, Heilman is likely to give up a hit or two and possibly a run.
Johan Santana has an ERA+ of 127 and a WHIP of 1.200. Both are below his career numbers, but they are both very respectable. He is an ace pitcher.
John Maine has an ERA + of 111 and a WHIP of 1.313. On an elite team, those are probably worthy of a third best pitcher, but he is pitching well.
Oliver Perez has pitched really bad. He has an ERA+ of 84 and a WHIP of 1.525. His past numbers suggest an up and down career. He should be the fifth best pitcher despite below average numbers because he is capable of delivering gems.
Mike Pelfrey has pitched even worse. He has an ERA + of 81 and a WHIP of 1.696. That is horrendous. His past numbers are similar. He should not be a starting pitcher.
The real problem with the Mets is the moves made by Omar Minaya. Carlos Delgado is horrible defensively, and he is a below average hitter. His power numbers are down, and he isn't getting on base.
My only real complaint with Randolph is that Ryan Church isn't batting higher and he over uses Aaron Heilman. Johan Santana and John Maine should pitch deeper into games. Some of those relievers just need a break, and those two pitchers have pitched well. Perhaps Randolph doesn't deserve as much criticism, though he deserves some because the team was projected to win 93 games. However, Randolph really shouldn't have brought up Isiah Thomas when he talked about minority coaches in New York receiving bad treatment by the media.
EDIT: The lineup was written for the lineup as of yesterday. As of today, Randolph made a change and Delgado now bats seventh. Ryan Church bas been moved to fifth, which is much better.
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